Commodity Futures Trading Commission

The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled 3-0 on August 28, 2026, that Kalshi's sports-related event contracts are sports betting subject to state regulation, not swaps under federal commodity law. This contradicts an April 2026 Third Circuit ruling that all event contracts are swaps regulated by the CFTC. The circuit split makes Supreme Court review likely. The decision blocks platforms like Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Robinhood from offering sports contracts in Nevada and other Ninth Circuit states.

5 reports · 4 sources · Updated Sep 1, 06:04 PM UTC

Prediction market platform Kalshi permanently banned former U.S. Representative George Santos and imposed a $71,356 penalty after finding he engaged in insider trading by betting over $17,000 on his own attendance at President Donald Trump’s 2026 State of the Union address. Kalshi reported Santos to the Department of Justice in June 2026. Santos, expelled from Congress in 2023 and later sentenced to 87 months in prison before his sentence was commuted by Trump, responded defiantly on X.

17 reports · 11 sources · Updated Sep 1, 03:02 AM UTC

Kalshi, a U.S.-regulated prediction market platform, partnered with brokerage infrastructure startup Alpaca to offer its event contracts internationally. Alpaca, which reaches over 14 million brokerage accounts and partners with more than 300 financial institutions, will integrate Kalshi’s contracts into its platform, pending local regulatory approvals. The deal follows Kalshi’s June partnership with Canadian firm Wealthsimple and its recent $1 billion Series F funding at a $22 billion valuation.

5 reports · 3 sources · Updated Aug 31, 02:26 PM UTC

A former White House teleprompter operator was fined $172,000 by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for insider trading. The individual used non-public information about the timing and content of President Donald Trump’s speeches to place profitable bets on the Kalshi prediction market. The settlement includes a $65,000 fine and disgorgement of profits, highlighting the CFTC’s enforcement of insider trading rules in emerging political prediction markets.

9 reports · 6 sources · Updated Sep 1, 04:18 PM UTC

On August 19-20, 2026, Bitcoin surged from near $57,735 to over $72,000, driven by a massive short squeeze that liquidated over $3 billion in crypto positions. The rally was fueled by the U.S. Treasury’s announcement to double long-bond buybacks (loosening financial conditions) and President Trump’s White House meeting with crypto executives, where he vowed pro-crypto policies. Bitcoin hit $71,385–$72,000, with Ethereum and XRP rising 19% each. Total crypto market cap reached $2.52 trillion.

22 reports · 4 sources · Updated Aug 27, 06:42 PM UTC

On August 19-20, 2026, President Donald Trump met with top cryptocurrency executives at the White House, urging Congress to pass the stalled CLARITY Act, which would establish a regulatory framework for digital assets. The meeting sparked a broad crypto rally, with Bitcoin surging above $71,000 and Ether rising over 18%. The bill, which passed the House in July 2025, remains stalled in the Senate over ethics provisions. A procedural vote is set for September 15.

9 reports · 2 sources · Updated Aug 22, 09:45 AM UTC

Novig, a new sports-focused prediction market platform, launched on August 4, 2026, and reported over $125 million in notional trading volume in its first week, surpassing rivals like Kalshi and Polymarket U.S. Baseball dominated activity, with parlays accounting for a third of volume. The platform faces legal challenges from several U.S. states claiming it operates as illegal gambling, despite receiving CFTC approval in June. Novig restricts access to users 21 and older.

5 reports · 2 sources · Updated Aug 18, 01:36 PM UTC

New York State, led by Attorney General Letitia James and Governor Kathy Hochul, filed a lawsuit against prediction market platform Kalshi, alleging it operates an unlicensed gambling business in violation of state law. The suit seeks a permanent injunction, restitution, and penalties, including $100,000 per unauthorized sports wager. Kalshi argues it is a federally licensed exchange regulated by the CFTC, which filed to block New York’s enforcement. The case highlights a broader federal-state conflict over prediction market regulation and tax disparities.

16 reports · 5 sources · Updated Aug 12, 02:17 PM UTC

On July 23, 2026, cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX announced it will cease operations on September 23, 2026, following a strategic review by owner HDR Global Trading. New sign-ups have halted, and trading will be restricted after August 26. Hours after the announcement, a class-action lawsuit was filed in New York alleging forced liquidations, theft of Bitcoin, and insider trading by co-founders Arthur Hayes, Ben Delo, and Samuel Reed. The exchange, which pioneered perpetual swaps, had previously pleaded guilty to Bank Secrecy Act violations and paid $100 million in penalties.

13 reports · 1 sources · Updated Aug 3, 02:36 PM UTC

On July 27-28, 2026, U.S. District Judge Katherine Menendez issued a preliminary injunction halting Minnesota's ban on prediction markets (e.g., Kalshi, Polymarket), which was set to take effect August 1. The judge ruled the ban likely preempted by federal law under the Commodity Exchange Act, siding with the CFTC and platforms. This marks a major win for the prediction market industry and may impact similar state efforts in Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Wisconsin.

6 reports · 3 sources · Updated Jul 29, 10:00 AM UTC

A coalition of 44 state attorneys general sent a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) arguing that the agency lacks the statutory authority to regulate sports-related event contracts on prediction market platforms. The letter was submitted as the public comment period for the CFTC's first proposed rule on prediction market regulation ended. The states contend that sports-related contracts resemble sports betting, which falls under state jurisdiction, and that the CFTC's proposed rule is an overreach. The CFTC has sued nine states to defend its exclusive regulatory authority over these markets. The CME Group also submitted a letter criticizing the CFTC's definition of 'gaming,' arguing it could preempt state sports regulations. The dispute has intensified as prediction market volumes surged, driven by events like the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

1 reports · 1 sources · Updated Jul 28, 06:27 PM UTC

Fanatics, a global sports platform, announced on July 27, 2026, that it will acquire a designated contract market and a derivatives clearing organization from brokerage BGC Group to launch its own prediction market exchange. Specifically, Fanatics will buy Commodity Futures Trading Commission-registered Water Street Labs, LLC and CX Clearinghouse L.P. from BGC. Financial terms were not disclosed. Fanatics Markets, launched in 2025 as the prediction markets subsidiary, allows users to trade on sports outcomes such as game winners, player milestones, and tournament champions. The platform is currently accessible in 23 U.S. states, including California, Texas, and Florida. The deal aims to expand Fanatics' prediction market offerings. The article notes that prediction market startups like Kalshi have clashed with state regulators over gambling laws, with critics arguing such platforms constitute illegal gambling. Matt King, CEO of Fanatics Betting and Gaming, stated the acquisition combines institutional foundation with Fanatics' fan engagement expertise to accelerate prediction market growth.

1 reports · 1 sources · Updated Jul 27, 01:09 PM UTC

Fanatics, a global sports platform, announced on July 27, 2026, that it will acquire a designated contract market and a derivatives clearing organization from brokerage BGC Group to launch its own prediction market exchange. Specifically, Fanatics will buy Commodity Futures Trading Commission-registered Water Street Labs, LLC and CX Clearinghouse L.P. from BGC. Financial terms were not disclosed. Fanatics Markets, launched in 2025 as the prediction markets subsidiary, allows users to trade on sports outcomes such as game winners, player milestones, and tournament champions. The platform is currently accessible in 23 U.S. states, including California, Texas, and Florida. The deal aims to expand Fanatics' prediction market offerings. The announcement comes amid regulatory clashes between prediction market startups like Kalshi and state regulators over gambling laws. Matt King, CEO of Fanatics Betting and Gaming, stated the combination of institutional foundation and Fanatics' consumer engagement expertise will accelerate prediction market growth.

1 reports · 1 sources · Updated Jul 27, 01:09 PM UTC

Nasdaq reported second-quarter 2026 earnings that exceeded analyst forecasts, driven by the record-setting SpaceX IPO and strong data revenue. Net revenue reached $1.5 billion, a 15% increase, with the capital access platforms segment earning $621 million, up 19%. Adjusted earnings per share were $1.07, beating the consensus estimate of $0.98. Market services revenue rose 11% to $340 million, boosted by active trading amid U.S.-Iran war news and AI sector volatility. Financial technology revenue climbed 16% to $539 million. Despite strong results, Nasdaq's stock is down over 6% year-to-date due to concerns that the CFTC allowing Kalshi and Coinbase to offer crypto perpetual futures threatens traditional exchanges. Nasdaq also announced a quarterly dividend of $0.31 per share.

1 reports · 1 sources · Updated Jul 23, 01:09 PM UTC

Kalshi, a prediction-markets provider, has filed with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to launch perpetual futures contracts tied to the spot prices of gold, silver, and platinum. Unlike traditional futures, these derivatives have no expiration date, allowing users to speculate on precious metal prices indefinitely. The move marks an expansion of Kalshi's product offerings into commodity derivatives, pending regulatory approval. The filing was reported by Dean Seal for the Wall Street Journal and published on Yahoo Finance on July 21, 2026.

1 reports · 1 sources · Updated Jul 21, 05:48 PM UTC

This financial analysis article by Jim Wyckoff, published on Yahoo Finance on July 21, 2026, recommends buying September British pound futures (B6U26) as a trading opportunity against the US dollar. The author notes that the pound is in an uptrend on daily charts, with bulls holding the near-term technical advantage. Fundamentally, the UK economy is described as resilient with higher interest rates and stable government policies, supporting the pound against the dollar. A move above chart resistance at 1.3481 would signal a buying opportunity, with an upside price objective of 1.3850 or higher. Technical support for placing a protective sell stop is identified at 1.3340. The article includes standard risk warnings about the volatility and complexity of commodity futures trading.

1 reports · 1 sources · Updated Jul 21, 02:19 PM UTC

L1 Capital International Fund's Q2 2026 investor letter discusses Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) as a high-quality business trading at a compelling valuation, with a forward P/E ratio of approximately 17x, a level not seen since the Global Financial Crisis. The fund notes ICE is not particularly AI-sensitive and views market concerns about AI impact on proprietary data usage as peripheral. A larger concern is the CFTC potentially authorizing 'perpetual' derivatives and encouraging competition in crypto markets, which could compete with established regulated exchanges. The CFTC currently has only one commissioner, Michael Selig, appointed by President Trump, with a background in crypto exchange law. ICE shares closed at $139.65 on July 17, 2026, with a market cap of $78.97 billion, down 22.76% over 52 weeks but up 6.33% in the past month. The fund returned +2.6% in Q2 2026 versus a 12.5% benchmark return.

1 reports · 1 sources · Updated Jul 20, 01:37 PM UTC

L1 Capital International Fund's Q2 2026 investor letter discusses Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) as a high-quality business trading at a compelling valuation, with a forward P/E ratio of around 17x, a level not seen since the Global Financial Crisis. The fund notes ICE is not particularly AI-sensitive and that market concerns about AI impacting proprietary data usage are peripheral. A larger concern is the CFTC's potential authorization of 'perpetual' derivatives and increased competition in crypto markets, especially given the unusual situation of only one commissioner, Michael Selig, remaining after resignations. ICE shares closed at $139.65 on July 17, 2026, with a market cap of $78.97 billion, down 22.76% over 52 weeks. The fund returned +2.6% in Q2 2026 versus a 12.5% benchmark return, with underperformance driven by holdings not in the portfolio.

1 reports · 1 sources · Updated Jul 20, 01:37 PM UTC

Prediction-market trading surged during the World Cup, reaching an estimated 27% of all legal US sports-betting volume, up from 9% at the start of the year, according to H2 Gambling Capital. Kalshi, the largest prediction market platform, repeatedly broke its own trading records and had more daily app users than DraftKings or FanDuel during the tournament. The growth highlights the competitive threat prediction markets pose to traditional sportsbooks, enabled by a friendly federal regulator (CFTC) that allows them to offer innovative betting products, serve customers from states where sports gambling is illegal, and accept users over 18. While gambling companies like DraftKings and FanDuel have launched their own prediction market products, their stocks slumped more than 25% on the year. Analysts are divided on whether prediction markets represent a fundamental shift or cater to a different, less lucrative audience.

1 reports · 1 sources · Updated Jul 19, 08:55 PM UTC

Gabriel Perez, President Trump’s longtime teleprompter operator, is under CFTC investigation for allegedly using insider knowledge of Trump’s speeches to earn over $100,000 betting on prediction market Kalshi. Kalshi flagged the suspicious trades, and Perez is in settlement talks. He has been placed on unpaid leave. The case highlights growing scrutiny of insider trading in political prediction markets.

11 reports · 7 sources · Updated Jul 29, 12:33 PM UTC

A teleprompter operator is under investigation by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for allegedly placing bets on the prediction market platform Kalshi related to statements made by President Donald Trump. Kalshi's head of enforcement, Robert DeNault, stated that the exchange's surveillance team flagged the trades and referred them to the CFTC after an internal investigation. Kalshi is cooperating with regulators and has provided evidence. CNBC has requested comment from the White House. The story is breaking and updates are expected.

1 reports · 1 sources

Prediction market platform Kalshi has filed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to offer contracts tied to flight cancellations at US airports, allowing users to bet on cancellation percentages within fixed timeframes. The contracts would use FlightAware as the primary data source, with Transportation Department statistics as backup. However, FlightAware's parent company RTX stated that no company is authorized to use its data for this purpose and will terminate accounts violating terms of use. The filing comes during the US summer travel rush when disruptions are common. Kalshi has implemented guardrails against insider trading, including employment verification and blocking politicians and athletes from relevant markets. The prediction market industry faces criticism from lawmakers who view it as enabling insider trading, though Kalshi's CEO argues traditional stock markets face greater insider trading threats.

1 reports · 1 sources

On July 14, 2026, the US Treasury and UK Treasury published a joint 10-point roadmap through the Transatlantic Taskforce for Markets of the Future. The roadmap outlines shared positions on stablecoin reserve standards, requiring one-to-one backing by high-quality liquid assets with segregated reserves. It establishes a pathway for cross-border market access for stablecoins authorized in either jurisdiction, subject to domestic laws. A private-sector working group will test cross-border tokenization use cases, while the SEC and FCA will explore easier cross-border capital raising. The framework also addresses insolvency protections for stablecoin holders and potential use of stablecoins or tokenized money market funds as collateral. No automatic mutual recognition is granted, and domestic law still governs each token.

1 reports · 1 sources

Goldman Sachs has quietly updated its personal trading policy to ban employees from wagering on prediction market contracts tied to companies, elections, financial markets, and the economy, according to Bloomberg. The ban comes as prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have exploded in popularity, with sector trading volume jumping from $16 billion in 2024 to a projected $240 billion in 2026. The move contrasts with JPMorgan, which has expressed interest in selling such products to clients. The ban follows a CFTC advisory warning about insider trading on these platforms and the prosecution of a Google employee who allegedly used nonpublic data to profit $1.2 million on prediction contracts. Goldman's policy allows sports and entertainment bets but prohibits financial and political event contracts, with repeat violations potentially leading to termination.

1 reports · 1 sources

The Aria, a major Las Vegas casino operated by MGM Resorts, abruptly canceled its hosting of the Predict 2026 conference focused on prediction markets. The decision came just days after the contract was signed, driven by fears of scrutiny from Nevada gambling regulators. In a termination letter, the resort cited Nevada’s current aggressive regulatory and enforcement position regarding prediction markets. This incident highlights escalating tensions between state gaming authorities and emerging prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Nevada regulators argue that certain sports-event contracts offered by these firms resemble unlicensed wagering, bypassing state gaming rules and taxes. The Nevada Gaming Control Board has previously warned license holders that associating with such operators could jeopardize their gaming licenses. While prediction market companies contend their products are federally regulated financial instruments overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Nevada officials have taken direct legal action, including suing Kalshi and briefly barring it from operating in the state. The cancellation underscores the widening divide between traditional casino operators and new entrants in the prediction market space, as legacy giants remain cautious amidst regulatory uncertainty.

1 reports · 1 sources

Goldman Sachs is increasingly utilizing artificial intelligence to aggregate and analyze data from prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Ben Snider, the firm’s chief US equity strategist, revealed at the RIA Professional Investor Forum that these platforms serve as vital indicators of market sentiment regarding economic and geopolitical events. Specifically, Snider cited the use of this data to assess potential supply chain disruptions caused by restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing conflict in Iran. The aggregated AI data suggested a timeline for the strait's reopening, influencing equity market optimism. However, the growing reliance on these platforms highlights significant regulatory challenges. Industry experts, including Carlo di Florio of ACA Group, warn about the risks of insider trading and the lack of robust oversight by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). While major financial institutions like JPMorgan and Charles Schwab explore integrating prediction markets into their services, they face pressure to implement strict compliance measures to prevent employees from leveraging sensitive firm information for betting purposes in this rapidly evolving, largely unregulated sector.

1 reports · 1 sources

The National Football League (NFL) has formally requested that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) implement stricter regulations for football prediction markets. In a letter to CFTC Chair Michael Selig, NFL senior vice president Brendon Plack advocated for measures to protect the integrity of sporting events. Key proposals include raising the minimum age for users from 18 to 21, aligning with the NBA's stance, and establishing a certification process for individual player performance contracts to prevent self-certification by platforms. The league specifically seeks to eliminate markets deemed easily manipulated or objectionable, such as those based on player injuries or specific in-game actions like incomplete passes. Additionally, the NFL called for bans on risky margin trading and required platform agreements with leagues on allowable contracts. This move occurs as the CFTC develops a new regulatory framework amidst ongoing legal conflicts with several states, including Illinois and Arizona, which argue that federal prediction markets undermine state-regulated sports betting systems. The dispute highlights the growing tension between federal oversight and state gaming authorities regarding the rapidly expanding prediction market industry.

1 reports · 1 sources

This article details a promotional offer from Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market exchange, providing new users with a $10 bonus when they use the promo code COVERS. The promotion is highlighted in the context of the NBA Western Conference semifinals, specifically Game 6 between the San Antonio Spurs and the Minnesota Timberwolves. To claim the bonus, users must register, verify their identity, deposit at least $1, and trade a minimum of $10 in event contracts. The bonus is awarded regardless of the trading outcome. The article outlines the step-by-step process for signing up, depositing funds, and placing trades on Kalshi’s platform, which operates under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and differs from traditional sportsbooks by offering event-based contracts. It also mentions that the offer is available in all eligible US states except Nevada and includes information on Kalshi’s referral program, which allows users to earn bonuses for inviting friends. The piece serves as both a guide for new users and an advertisement for the platform’s services during a high-profile sporting event.

1 reports · 1 sources

This article details a promotional offer from Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market exchange, providing new users with a $10 bonus when using the promo code COVERS. The promotion is highlighted in the context of the NBA playoffs, specifically Game 6 between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Detroit Pistons. To qualify, users must register with the code, verify their identity with a government ID and selfie, deposit at least $1, and trade a minimum of $10 in event contracts. The bonus is awarded regardless of the trade's outcome. The article explains that Kalshi operates under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and offers markets on sports, politics, and culture, distinguishing it from traditional sportsbooks. It outlines the step-by-step process to claim the bonus, including signing up, depositing funds, and placing trades. Additionally, it mentions a referral program where users can earn $25 per invited friend who meets trading requirements. The offer is available in most US states, excluding Nevada, and requires users to be physically present in eligible locations. The piece serves as both a guide for new users and an advertisement for the platform's services during a high-profile sporting event.

1 reports · 1 sources

The U.S. Senate Banking Committee released the CLARITY Act draft, establishing a regulatory framework for digital assets by dividing oversight between the SEC and CFTC. The legislation clarifies asset classification, exempts Bitcoin and Ethereum from securities laws, and restricts stablecoin rewards to transactional incentives. This compromise resolves disputes between banks and crypto firms, boosting market sentiment and signaling potential mainstream adoption. The bill aims to provide legal certainty, reduce compliance burdens, and integrate blockchain technology into traditional finance, marking a pivotal moment for the U.S. digital asset industry.

11 reports · 9 sources · Updated May 17, 06:30 PM UTC