Center for Strategic and International Studies

The U.S. Defense Department announced framework agreements with General Dynamics and Lockheed Martin to triple Patriot and quadruple THAAD interceptor production over seven-year contracts, subject to congressional funding. The surge follows severe stockpile depletion from conflicts with Iran and Ukraine, with a CSIS report estimating 65% of Patriot and 38% of THAAD interceptors expended. The diminished inventory reduces U.S. readiness against peer adversaries like China.

6 reports · 3 sources · Updated Aug 31, 11:28 PM UTC

The U.S. military awarded RTX unit Raytheon a $22.9 billion, seven-year contract to boost Tomahawk cruise missile production from 60 to over 1,000 annually. The deal, announced by Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao, aims to replenish depleted stocks after arms supplies to allies and use in the Iran conflict. It formalizes a February framework agreement and is part of broader Trump administration efforts to secure multi-year defense contracts, including for Patriot and THAAD systems.

24 reports · 12 sources · Updated Aug 18, 04:37 PM UTC

The Pentagon has given defense companies 21 days to submit plans for dramatically faster production of critical weapons, driven by depleted munitions stockpiles from recent combat with Iran. Deputy Defense Secretary Steve Feinberg’s August 5 memo demands aggressive delivery schedules and industry capital investments. CSIS estimates Patriot interceptor stocks fell from 2,330 to 759–827, and THAAD stocks from 452 to 234–278. Current delivery timelines are 42–53 months. The memo targets 16 programs, including the Next Generation Interceptor and NASAMS, with responses informing the fiscal 2028 budget.

6 reports · 2 sources · Updated Aug 11, 02:54 PM UTC

The U.S. Department of Defense awarded Lockheed Martin a record $58.6 billion contract to produce PAC-3 MSE interceptor missiles over seven years (2026-2032), aiming to triple production capacity by 2030. The deal, centered on Lockheed’s Camden, Arkansas plant, will add 650 jobs and follows a $35 billion THAAD contract. The Pentagon cited urgent demand due to stockpile depletion from conflicts in Ukraine and Iran, with fewer than 1,000 Patriot interceptors remaining. Lockheed is investing $8-9 billion to modernize over 20 U.S. facilities.

27 reports · 7 sources · Updated Aug 11, 04:39 PM UTC

The Trump administration has approved a 30-year civilian nuclear cooperation deal with Saudi Arabia, allowing the kingdom to enrich uranium on its soil. The agreement, worth tens of billions of dollars, enables U.S. companies to build nuclear infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. It drops a Biden-era condition linking the deal to normalization with Israel and limits international inspections. Critics warn it could trigger a regional nuclear arms race, especially as the U.S. simultaneously wages conflict against Iran’s nuclear program. The deal is expected to be signed Wednesday.

31 reports · 12 sources · Updated Jul 27, 09:16 PM UTC

On July 22, 2026, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) hosted a tabletop exercise for members and staff of the House Homeland Security Committee and the House China Select Committee, simulating a Taiwan crisis in summer 2027. The scenario involved China launching massive military exercises around Taiwan, followed by AI-enabled cyberattacks targeting US transportation and logistics networks critical for deploying American forces. Participants, including Reps. Eli Crane, Michael Guest, Michael McCaul, Shri Thanedar, and Resident Commissioner Pablo José Hernández, had to prioritize defending networks, coordinate with private sector operators, and assess whether moving forces would deter or escalate conflict. The exercise featured AI-driven attacks such as stolen credentials, logistics system interference, misinformation campaigns, and prompt injection attacks. Rep. McCaul referenced Anthropic's powerful 'Mythos' AI model, warning China is only 3-5 months behind US capabilities. The scenario mirrors real-world concerns about the Chinese-backed Volt Typhoon hacking group's long-term infiltration of US critical infrastructure.

1 reports · 1 sources · Updated Jul 22, 09:00 PM UTC

Members and staffers from the House Homeland Security Committee and the House China Select Committee participated in a tabletop exercise hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) on July 22, 2026. The simulation tested U.S. responses to AI-backed Chinese cyberattacks targeting American transportation and logistics networks during a hypothetical 2027 Taiwan crisis. Participants, including Reps. Eli Crane, Michael Guest, Michael McCaul, Shri Thanedar, and Puerto Rico Resident Commissioner Pablo José Hernández, faced decisions on defending critical infrastructure, coordinating with private sector operators, and assessing whether moving forces would deter or escalate conflict. The scenario included AI-driven attacks such as stolen credentials, logistics interference, misinformation campaigns, and prompt injection attacks. Rep. McCaul referenced the powerful U.S. AI model 'Mythos' and assessed China's AI capabilities as 3-5 months behind. The exercise mirrored longstanding concerns about the Chinese state-backed hacking group Volt Typhoon, which has reportedly infiltrated U.S. critical infrastructure.

1 reports · 1 sources · Updated Jul 22, 09:00 PM UTC

On July 22, 2026, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) hosted a tabletop exercise for members and staffers of the House Homeland Security Committee and the House China Select Committee. The simulation depicted a 2027 Taiwan crisis where China launches a massive military exercise, effectively blockading the island, while Chinese hackers target U.S. transportation and logistics networks needed for military deployment. Participants, including Reps. Eli Crane, Michael Guest, Michael McCaul, Shri Thanedar, and Pablo José Hernández, had to prioritize network defense, coordinate with private sector operators, and assess whether moving forces would deter or escalate conflict. The exercise featured AI-enabled attacks, including stolen credentials, logistics system interference, a misinformation campaign, and a prompt injection attack on AI systems. Rep. McCaul noted China is 3-5 months behind the U.S. in AI capabilities. The scenario reflects longstanding concerns about the Chinese-backed Volt Typhoon hacking group burrowing into U.S. critical infrastructure for potential future disruption.

1 reports · 1 sources · Updated Jul 22, 09:00 PM UTC

Former U.S. officials testified before the House Intelligence Committee on July 21, 2026, warning that the U.S. intelligence community has not kept pace with China's efforts to steal proprietary American AI technology. Experts including Frank Cilluffo, H.R. McMaster, and Ben Buchanan argued that counterintelligence priorities must shift from traditional government secrets to protecting frontier AI models held by private companies. They highlighted Chinese tactics such as model distillation operations and embedding spies in U.S. firms. Buchanan criticized the Trump administration for easing advanced chip export restrictions to China, urging stronger enforcement. The hearing noted that while the White House has directed agencies to safeguard AI, it has not established a dedicated counterintelligence framework equivalent to recent quantum computing executive orders. The testimony underscored AI's growing role in cyberattacks, autonomous drones, and influence operations.

1 reports · 1 sources · Updated Jul 22, 12:00 AM UTC

Former U.S. officials testified before the House Intelligence Committee on July 21, 2026, warning that China's intelligence services are aggressively targeting American artificial intelligence companies to steal proprietary technology. The hearing, focused on threats 25 years after 9/11, highlighted that U.S. counterintelligence efforts have not kept pace with Chinese espionage tactics, including model distillation and embedding spies in firms. Experts including Frank Cilluffo, H.R. McMaster, and Ben Buchanan argued for a rethinking of counterintelligence beyond traditional spy-versus-spy methods. Buchanan criticized the Trump administration's easing of chip export restrictions to China, urging stronger enforcement. The hearing noted that while quantum computing has a dedicated counterintelligence framework, AI lacks an equivalent directive, leaving private sector AI labs vulnerable.

1 reports · 1 sources · Updated Jul 22, 12:00 AM UTC

Former U.S. officials testified before the House Intelligence Committee on July 21, 2026, warning that China is aggressively using espionage to steal proprietary artificial intelligence technology from American companies. The hearing, focused on threats 25 years after 9/11, highlighted that U.S. counterintelligence efforts have not kept pace with China's intelligence-gathering techniques, including human spies and AI model distillation. Experts including Frank Cilluffo, H.R. McMaster, and Ben Buchanan argued for a rethinking of counterintelligence to protect private-sector AI research. Buchanan criticized the Trump administration for easing chip export restrictions to China, urging stronger enforcement. The White House has directed agencies to safeguard AI but lacks a dedicated counterintelligence framework similar to quantum technology directives.

1 reports · 1 sources · Updated Jul 22, 12:00 AM UTC

President Donald Trump is escalating military strikes against Iran following the deaths of U.S. service members in Jordan, effectively ending a ceasefire. A U.S. official told The Washington Post that the military is planning for a wider war but is constrained by dwindling stockpiles of air defense and long-range munitions, as well as damage to Middle East bases. A Center for Strategic and International Studies report estimates it will take until at least 2030 to restore U.S. missile stockpiles to prewar levels. The war has cost over $100 billion, with at least 17 American service members killed. Iran claims the U.S. attacked a nuclear power plant. The Pentagon is also facing accusations of hiding the number of injured troops from public reports.

1 reports · 1 sources · Updated Jul 20, 02:21 PM UTC

President Donald Trump is escalating military strikes against Iran following the deaths of U.S. service members in Jordan, effectively ending any ceasefire. A U.S. official told The Washington Post that the military is planning for a wider war but is constrained by dwindling stockpiles of air defense and long-range munitions, as well as damage to Middle Eastern bases. A Center for Strategic and International Studies report estimates it will take until at least 2030 to restore U.S. missile stockpiles to prewar levels. The war has cost over $100 billion, with at least 17 American service members killed. Iran claims the U.S. attacked a nuclear power plant. The Pentagon is also facing accusations of hiding the number of injured troops from public reports.

1 reports · 1 sources · Updated Jul 20, 02:21 PM UTC

President Donald Trump is escalating military operations against Iran following the deaths of U.S. service members in Jordan, despite warnings from U.S. officials that the military lacks sufficient stockpiles of air defense and long-range munitions to sustain operations. A U.S. official told The Washington Post that the White House may not be aware of the severity of resource shortages. A Center for Strategic and International Studies report estimates it will take until at least 2030 to restore missile stockpiles to prewar levels. The war has cost over $100 billion, with at least 17 American service members killed and over 400 wounded. Iran claims the U.S. attacked a nuclear power plant. The Pentagon is reportedly hiding injury figures to prevent Iran from refining its attacks. The ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is over, and there is no sign of de-escalation.

1 reports · 1 sources · Updated Jul 20, 02:21 PM UTC

Lockheed Martin unveiled the PAC-3 Adapted Capability Effector (ACE) at the Farnborough International Airshow, a new, cheaper version of its Patriot air defense interceptor. Priced at less than half the cost of the roughly $4 million PAC-3 MSE, the ACE is designed to address the strategic liability of expensive defenses being overwhelmed by cheap drones and missiles. Built on the existing PAC-3 fire control system, it integrates directly into the Patriot and Integrated Battle Command System, allowing for a fast 36-month timeline to initial production. The company plans joint development with American and European partners to strengthen the defense industrial base and ensure interoperability. The announcement follows a pattern of Lockheed Martin pushing European production partnerships, including a recent MOU with Germany's Rheinmetall for missile production.

1 reports · 1 sources · Updated Jul 20, 11:06 AM UTC

As of July 17, 2026, the United States has fired over 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles at Iran, the largest expenditure of the weapon in history, depleting roughly a third of its estimated 3,100-4,000 missile stockpile. The ceasefire declared on April 8 collapsed on July 8, and strikes have resumed. The Pentagon's own wargames indicate that a potential conflict with China would exhaust the remaining Tomahawk inventory within days, as the production line only builds about 90 missiles per year. The article highlights the strategic vulnerability of the US long-range strike capacity, with officials warning of approaching 'Winchester' (out of ammunition) in the Middle East theater. The analysis underscores the finite nature of the arsenal and the mismatch between inventory, production rates, and the demands of a major power conflict.

1 reports · 1 sources · Updated Jul 17, 02:39 PM UTC

As of July 17, 2026, the United States has fired over 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles at Iran, the largest single expenditure of the weapon in history. With the ceasefire declared dead on July 8, strikes have resumed, further depleting an estimated remaining stockpile of 2,000 to 3,000 missiles. The article highlights a critical vulnerability: the Pentagon's own wargames indicate that a conflict with China would exhaust the Tomahawk inventory in days, far faster than the current Iran campaign. The production line, building only about 90 missiles per year, cannot keep pace. The analysis, drawing on CSIS and Stimson Center estimates, underscores the strategic risk of relying on a finite, slow-to-replenish precision-strike arsenal for major power competition.

1 reports · 1 sources · Updated Jul 17, 02:39 PM UTC

As of July 17, 2026, the US military has fired over 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles at Iran, the largest expenditure of the weapon in history, depleting roughly a third of the estimated 3,100-4,000 missile stockpile. With the ceasefire declared dead on July 8, strikes have resumed, further draining inventories. The remaining arsenal is estimated at 2,000-3,000 missiles, while production runs at only about 90 per year. Pentagon wargames indicate that a conflict with China would require Tomahawks at rates the stockpile cannot sustain, potentially emptying the magazine in days. The article highlights the strategic vulnerability of relying on a finite, slow-to-replenish precision-strike capability against a major power adversary.

1 reports · 1 sources · Updated Jul 17, 02:39 PM UTC

In March 2026, a U.S. Navy fast-attack submarine sank the Iranian Moudge-class frigate IRIS Dena in the Indian Ocean using a single Mark 48 ADCAP torpedo, marking the first American submarine torpedo kill since World War II. The weapon, in service since 1972, detonates beneath a ship's keel to break its hull, and has no reliable defense. The sinking occurred approximately 20 nautical miles south of Sri Lanka as the Dena returned from an international naval review in India; at least 80 of roughly 180 crew were killed. The article argues the Mark 48 remains critically important for undersea warfare, citing CSIS Taiwan wargames where submarine dominance proved decisive, but notes limitations including high cost per round and limited magazine capacity that could be exhausted within a week of intense conflict.

1 reports · 1 sources · Updated Jul 17, 12:43 PM UTC

In March 2026, a U.S. Navy fast-attack submarine sank the Iranian Moudge-class frigate IRIS Dena in the Indian Ocean with a single Mark 48 ADCAP torpedo, marking the first American submarine torpedo kill since World War II. The strike occurred roughly 20 nautical miles south of Sri Lanka as the Dena returned from an international naval review in India. At least 80 of the 180 crew were killed. The article argues the Mark 48, in service since 1972, remains a decisive weapon due to its under-keel detonation capability and lack of reliable defenses. It cites CSIS wargames on a Taiwan scenario where undersea dominance is critical, but notes the high cost and limited magazine capacity as drawbacks.

1 reports · 1 sources · Updated Jul 17, 12:43 PM UTC

In March 2026, a U.S. Navy fast-attack submarine sank the Iranian Moudge-class frigate IRIS Dena with a single Mark 48 ADCAP torpedo in the Indian Ocean, marking the first American submarine torpedo kill since World War II. The attack occurred roughly 20 nautical miles south of Sri Lanka as the Dena returned from an international naval review in India. Of approximately 180 crew, 32 were rescued and at least 80 killed. The Mark 48, in service since 1972, detonates beneath a ship's keel to break its hull, and has no reliable defense. The article argues the weapon is critically important for future naval conflicts, particularly in scenarios like a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, where CSIS wargames show undersea dominance is decisive. However, critics note the high cost per round and limited magazine capacity.

1 reports · 1 sources · Updated Jul 17, 12:43 PM UTC

President Donald Trump admitted in a Fox News interview that the U.S. objective to seize Iran's enriched uranium supply is driven more by public relations considerations than strategic necessity. This statement follows the administration's failure to achieve regime change in Iran, despite Trump's previous claims that U.S. and Israeli attacks had effectively toppled the government. Experts, including Mark F. Cancian from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, refute these claims, noting that while leadership changes occurred, the regime's structural integrity remains intact. Additionally, Rafael Grossi, director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, argued that confiscating existing uranium stocks would not eliminate Iran's nuclear capabilities, as the technical knowledge cannot be erased. Military historian Max Boot further highlighted the logistical dangers, estimating that such an operation would require thousands of U.S. troops on the ground for weeks. Trump explicitly stated that securing the uranium is important mainly to counter 'fake news' narratives and fulfill his prior public commitments, rather than serving a critical military or non-proliferation function.

1 reports · 1 sources

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio clarified the United States' diplomatic stance regarding Iran during an interview with NBC News. Rubio stated that President Trump addressed the issue of Iran during his recent summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, making it clear that the US is not requesting China's assistance in handling Iranian matters. This statement comes amidst ongoing tensions and deadlocked negotiations with Tehran, where President Trump has described the ceasefire as being on life support. The discussion was part of a broader analysis on Meet the Press NOW, featuring NBC News correspondents who examined the bilateral dynamics between Washington and Beijing. Additionally, Bonny Lin from the Center for Strategic and International Studies provided expert commentary on the persistent Taiwan issue overshadowing the summit. The segment highlights the complex interplay of US foreign policy priorities, emphasizing a unilateral approach to Iran while managing strategic competition and dialogue with China. Other related reports indicate that the Trump administration is eager to announce business deals from the trip, despite geopolitical frictions.

1 reports · 1 sources

Furientis, a novel defense startup based in Los Angeles, has emerged from stealth with a $5 million pre-seed funding round led by Silent Ventures. Co-founded by Brody Franzen and Aris Simsarian, the company aims to address the critical imbalance in modern warfare where multi-million-dollar interceptors are used against low-cost drone threats. By adopting automotive-style assembly processes and commercial off-the-shelf components, Furientis plans to produce ship-based interceptor missiles for approximately $250,000 each, significantly cheaper than the $1-5 million cost of traditional prime contractors. The startup targets a production capacity of 1,000 missiles per year per factory, utilizing rapid four-week design cycles and in-house solid rocket motor manufacturing. This approach contrasts sharply with legacy defense manufacturers, which often rely on bespoke hardware and lengthy modeling phases. The funding includes participation from Bessemer Venture Partners, SV Angel, and founders of Anduril and Armada. Furientis intends to demonstrate its F 1.0 missile technology later in 2026, seeking to revolutionize the defense industrial base by prioritizing scalable production over exquisite, slow-to-manufacture systems.

1 reports · 1 sources

According to leaked US intelligence assessments, Iranian military infrastructure has largely survived American airstrikes, contradicting President Donald Trump’s claims of overwhelming success. Reports indicate that 90 percent of Iran’s underground missile sites remain functional, with thirty of thirty-three positions along the Strait of Hormuz still operational. Additionally, seventy percent of mobile rocket launchers and the original rocket arsenal survived the forty-day air campaign. The conflict has cost the United States $29 billion, excluding billions more in repairs for bases damaged by Iranian retaliatory strikes. Crucially, the US depleted significant portions of its precision-guided munitions, including Tomahawk and JASSM cruise missiles, creating supply gaps that could hinder future deterrence capabilities against rivals like China. While Trump asserts Iran is nearing defeat, intelligence suggests Tehran retains 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium and controls the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian regime appears capable of withstanding current economic embargoes for several months, utilizing land routes to bypass naval blockades. Meanwhile, domestic consequences in the US include rising inflation and political backlash, raising questions about the strategic efficacy of the air-only campaign and the feasibility of further escalation without ground troops.

1 reports · 1 sources

As US President Donald Trump meets Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 14-15, 2026, significant anxiety persists within the United States regarding potential diplomatic concessions. Critics and former officials warn that Trump’s desire for warm personal ties with Xi could lead to strategic compromises on critical issues like Taiwan and technology protections in exchange for minor economic gains, such as agricultural purchases. Henrietta Levin, a former White House aide, argues that China is leveraging this dynamic to trade optics for substance, thereby advancing its strategic priorities while eroding trust among US allies. Unlike previous administrations that used diplomacy with Beijing to reassure partners like Japan, Trump’s approach isolates these relationships, allowing China to weaponize the appearance of rapprochement. Experts note the absence of demands for structural reforms in China and suggest that discrepancies in post-summit readouts, particularly regarding North Korea or Japan, may reveal the true extent of any private agreements made during this high-stakes encounter between the two superpowers.

1 reports · 1 sources

This analysis argues that while the recent summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing focused on trade, technology, and regional hotspots, the critical issue of nuclear weapons was largely sidelined. The article emphasizes that nuclear disarmament remains the most existential threat and must be prioritized in future meetings. It highlights US accusations, voiced by Undersecretary Thomas DiNanno, that China is rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal to reach parity with the US and Russia by 2030. Furthermore, the US alleges China has conducted secret nuclear tests using decoupling methods, a claim Beijing denies. These developments have prompted Trump to consider resuming US nuclear testing, potentially ending the long-standing moratorium. Critics argue China’s public support for disarmament contrasts with its provocative military modernization and refusal to engage in trilateral talks. The piece underscores the collapse of previous arms control frameworks like New START and the urgent need for transparent dialogue to prevent a new nuclear arms race.

1 reports · 1 sources

A Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report estimates that President Donald Trump's proposed 'Golden Dome' national anti-missile defense system could cost US taxpayers approximately US$1.2 trillion over twenty years. This figure significantly exceeds Trump's initial estimate of US$175 billion for a system inspired by Israel's Iron Dome. The analysis indicates that protecting the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii would require four defensive layers, including thousands of satellites, radars, and missile installations. Space interceptors, comprising a constellation of roughly 7,800 armed satellites in low orbit, would account for about 60% of the total cost due to frequent replacement needs caused by atmospheric drag. Despite the massive investment, the report concludes that adversaries like Russia and China could potentially overwhelm the system with their large nuclear arsenals, allowing some missiles to reach their targets. Experts note that while the system aims to counter precision-guided conventional weapons, no defense can guarantee total protection. The project was initiated by a presidential decree in January 2025, aiming to shield critical assets and prevent strategic attacks without triggering nuclear retaliation.

1 reports · 1 sources

The US Defense Department has officially increased its estimated cost of the ongoing conflict with Iran to $29 billion, a figure disclosed by Acting Pentagon Comptroller Jules Hurst during a House Appropriations Committee hearing. This revision marks a significant increase from the $25 billion estimate provided in late April, with officials attributing the majority of expenses to the depletion of US munition stockpiles. However, independent analysts and think tanks argue that the official Pentagon figures significantly understate the true financial burden. Stephen Semler of the Security Policy Reform Institute estimates costs at $71.8 billion for the first 60 days alone, citing high expenditures on interceptors like Patriot and THAAD missiles. The Center for Strategic and International Studies notes that the US may have exhausted up to 80% of its THAAD inventory. Concurrently, reports indicate that Iran retains substantial military capabilities, including 70% of its mobile launchers and prewar missile stockpile, challenging earlier US claims of extensive damage. The conflict continues to impact global trade, with tensions remaining high around the Strait of Hormuz as Washington maintains a blockade on Iranian ports.

1 reports · 1 sources

The Pentagon has announced new agreements with defense contractors Anduril, CoAspire, Leidos, and Zone 5 to acquire 10,000 low-cost containerized missiles. This initiative, termed the Low-Cost Containerized Missiles (LCCM) program, aims to replenish dwindling munition stocks heavily depleted during the ongoing US-Israeli war against Iran. Additionally, a separate deal with Castelion will secure at least 500 Blackbeard hypersonic missiles annually, with options for expansion. The Defense Department plans to begin procuring test missiles in June to assess the LCCM program's viability. Under Secretary of War Emil Michael emphasized the strategy's goal of delivering affordable mass to warfighters rapidly, aligning with Secretary Hegseth’s Acquisition Transformation Strategy. The move addresses critical supply shortages, as pre-war inventories were already low and replenishment could take up to four years according to CSIS estimates. The conflict, currently stalled in a ceasefire with deadlocked negotiations, has reportedly cost $29 billion. These contracts represent a significant shift toward commercial-style partnerships to accelerate production and R&D investment in response to sustained combat demands.

1 reports · 1 sources