Without Restraint, Beijing and Manila Can’t Deliver the South China Sea Code
Decades-long negotiations for a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea may conclude in 2026, with both China and the Philippines expressing confidence in finalizing the agreement. Beijing aims to finish talks with ASEAN by year-end, while Manila intends to seal the deal during its ASEAN chairmanship. However, the article argues that precarious bilateral relations threaten this progress. Key obstacles include the approaching 10th anniversary of the 2016 arbitration ruling, which China rejects as null and void, and persistent distrust between frontline maritime forces. While relations stabilized under former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, recent years have seen increased friction. The analysis suggests that without effective management of these political tensions and maritime incidents, the two nations may fail to deliver a binding code. The outcome hinges on whether Beijing and Manila can insulate diplomatic negotiations from escalating on-the-ground clashes and historical grievances surrounding the arbitration award.
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Without Restraint, Beijing and Manila Can’t Deliver the South China Sea Code
Decades-long negotiations for a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea may conclude in 2026, with both China and the Philippines expressing confidence in finalizing the agreement. Beijing aims to finish talks with ASEAN by year-end, while Manila intends to seal the deal during its ASEAN chairmanship. However, the article argues that precarious bilateral relations threaten this progress. Key obstacles include the approaching 10th anniversary of the 2016 arbitration ruling, which China rejects as null and void, and persistent distrust between frontline maritime forces. While relations stabilized under former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, recent years have seen increased friction. The analysis suggests that without effective management of these political tensions and maritime incidents, the two nations may fail to deliver a binding code. The outcome hinges on whether Beijing and Manila can insulate diplomatic negotiations from escalating on-the-ground clashes and historical grievances surrounding the arbitration award.
News - South China Morning Post