Why Bans Fail: Tipping Points and Australia's Social Media Ban

This National Bureau of Economic Research working paper analyzes the effectiveness of Australia’s December 2025 ban on social media accounts for youth under 16. Surveying 835 Australian teenagers four months post-implementation, researchers found that only approximately 25% of 14–15-year-olds comply with the regulation. The study highlights that social media usage is inherently social, meaning individual compliance depends on reaching a tipping point where enough peers also abstain. Currently, most banned teens perceive their peers as still active on these platforms and cite social connectivity as a primary reason for non-compliance. Crucially, respondents indicated they would require roughly two-thirds of their peers to stop using social media before they would voluntarily cease usage themselves. Furthermore, compliant teens are perceived as less popular than non-compliers, causing influential individuals to remain on the platforms. These dynamics suggest that compliance is likely to diminish rather than increase over time. The authors conclude that standalone bans are insufficient and must be paired with interventions targeting social norms and individual incentives to achieve sustained adherence. This research offers critical insights for other countries and states currently considering similar legislative measures.