Trade Dynamics and Economic Shifts at the End of Antiquity

This National Bureau of Economic Research working paper by Johannes Boehm and Thomas Chaney investigates the evolution of trade and economic activity during the End of Antiquity, a period marked by the shift of political power from the Mediterranean to Northern Europe and the Middle East. By assembling a comprehensive database of hundreds of thousands of ancient coins from the fourth to the tenth century, the authors estimate a dynamic model of trade and money diffusion. Their analysis reveals that Mediterranean trade was significantly disrupted by the emerging border between Islam and Christianity. Consequently, economic activity began shifting away from the Mediterranean region starting in the fifth century. The study finds that real consumption in the Middle East peaked in the eighth century. Furthermore, by the end of the ninth century, Atlantic regions, spanning from Islamic Spain to Frankish northwestern Europe, had emerged as the wealthiest areas of the ancient western world. This research provides granular insights into historical regional trade and consumption time series, highlighting the profound impact of geopolitical and religious boundaries on ancient economic structures.