Trade Data Highlights Turbulent 2025-26 Amid Geopolitical Conflicts
The fiscal year 2025-26 was marked by significant global trade turmoil, driven by reciprocal tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump and escalating conflicts in West Asia, including the Iran war and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Despite China achieving a $1.2 trillion trade surplus, India faced substantial uncertainty. While India finalized trade agreements with the UK, EU, and US, its merchandise exports reached only $441.78 billion, showing marginal growth. Labor-intensive sectors like textiles and jewelry underperformed, whereas electronic goods exports neared $48 billion. The conflict severely impacted trade with West Asia; exports to the region collapsed by nearly 58% in March, dragging down overall goods exports. Elevated oil prices, with Brent crude around $95.8 per barrel and India’s basket at $110, pose further risks. ICRA estimates that every $10 increase in oil prices could widen India’s current account deficit-to-GDP ratio by 30-40 basis points, creating challenging financing conditions. Future trade stability depends on ongoing diplomatic talks between the US and Iran and the reopening of critical shipping routes.
Wire timeline
Trade Data Highlights Turbulent 2025-26 Amid Geopolitical Conflicts
The fiscal year 2025-26 was marked by significant global trade turmoil, driven by reciprocal tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump and escalating conflicts in West Asia, including the Iran war and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Despite China achieving a $1.2 trillion trade surplus, India faced substantial uncertainty. While India finalized trade agreements with the UK, EU, and US, its merchandise exports reached only $441.78 billion, showing marginal growth. Labor-intensive sectors like textiles and jewelry underperformed, whereas electronic goods exports neared $48 billion. The conflict severely impacted trade with West Asia; exports to the region collapsed by nearly 58% in March, dragging down overall goods exports. Elevated oil prices, with Brent crude around $95.8 per barrel and India’s basket at $110, pose further risks. ICRA estimates that every $10 increase in oil prices could widen India’s current account deficit-to-GDP ratio by 30-40 basis points, creating challenging financing conditions. Future trade stability depends on ongoing diplomatic talks between the US and Iran and the reopening of critical shipping routes.
The Indian Express