Suspicious Polymarket Bets Precede US-Iran Ceasefire Announcement
In a significant development involving prediction markets, newly created accounts on Polymarket placed substantial bets on a US-Iran ceasefire just hours before President Donald Trump announced the deal. Analysis of blockchain data reveals that at least 50 wallets, many opened on the day of the event, profited hundreds of thousands of dollars by betting 'Yes' on the outcome despite escalating rhetoric from the White House and no public signals of an imminent agreement. One account made a $72,000 wager for a $200,000 profit, while others capitalized on last-minute trading. The timing suggests potential insider knowledge or sophisticated speculation regarding Trump's negotiation tactics. However, the market contract remains labeled as 'disputed' because Iran continued to impose restrictions on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz following the announcement, complicating the implementation of the two-week truce.
Wire timeline
Suspicious Polymarket Bets Precede US-Iran Ceasefire Announcement
In a significant development involving prediction markets, newly created accounts on Polymarket placed substantial bets on a US-Iran ceasefire just hours before President Donald Trump announced the deal. Analysis of blockchain data reveals that at least 50 wallets, many opened on the day of the event, profited hundreds of thousands of dollars by betting 'Yes' on the outcome despite escalating rhetoric from the White House and no public signals of an imminent agreement. One account made a $72,000 wager for a $200,000 profit, while others capitalized on last-minute trading. The timing suggests potential insider knowledge or sophisticated speculation regarding Trump's negotiation tactics. However, the market contract remains labeled as 'disputed' because Iran continued to impose restrictions on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz following the announcement, complicating the implementation of the two-week truce.
AP News