K-Research Predicts Stagflation Risk for Thailand in H2 2026
Kasikorn Research Centre (K-Research) forecasts that Thailand will enter a period of stagflation in late Q2 or early Q3 2026. This economic downturn is driven by rising oil prices, averaging $90 per barrel, due to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Simultaneously, businesses are restocking materials amid tight supplies, further pushing up goods prices. Consequently, K-Research has revised its inflation forecast upward to 3% and lowered GDP growth expectations to 1.2%, down from previous estimates. The think-tank notes that the Thai government’s limited fiscal capacity led to an earlier-than-expected end to petrol subsidies, exacerbating inflationary pressures. Nuttaporn Triratanasirikul, deputy managing director at K-Research, highlighted the low probability of a near-term resolution between the US and Iran, which keeps energy markets volatile. This outlook aligns with the International Monetary Fund’s recent downward revision of global GDP growth to 3.1% for 2026, citing similar risks from high oil prices and inflation. The situation underscores the significant impact of geopolitical tensions on regional economic stability and consumer costs.
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K-Research Predicts Stagflation Risk for Thailand in H2 2026
Kasikorn Research Centre (K-Research) forecasts that Thailand will enter a period of stagflation in late Q2 or early Q3 2026. This economic downturn is driven by rising oil prices, averaging $90 per barrel, due to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Simultaneously, businesses are restocking materials amid tight supplies, further pushing up goods prices. Consequently, K-Research has revised its inflation forecast upward to 3% and lowered GDP growth expectations to 1.2%, down from previous estimates. The think-tank notes that the Thai government’s limited fiscal capacity led to an earlier-than-expected end to petrol subsidies, exacerbating inflationary pressures. Nuttaporn Triratanasirikul, deputy managing director at K-Research, highlighted the low probability of a near-term resolution between the US and Iran, which keeps energy markets volatile. This outlook aligns with the International Monetary Fund’s recent downward revision of global GDP growth to 3.1% for 2026, citing similar risks from high oil prices and inflation. The situation underscores the significant impact of geopolitical tensions on regional economic stability and consumer costs.
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