The Real Thucydides Trap: Overconfidence Risks US-China War
This analytical article by Joshua Rovner challenges the traditional interpretation of the Thucydides Trap, arguing that the primary danger in US-China relations is not power transition but mutual overconfidence. Drawing parallels to the Peloponnesian War, where Athens and Sparta held stable comparative advantages yet still engaged in a ruinous conflict due to illusions of quick victory, the author warns that Beijing and Washington face similar risks. China dominates as a land power in East Asia, while the United States maintains superior naval projection capabilities. Despite this strategic stalemate theoretically discouraging direct hostilities, both nations harbor dangerous assumptions about winning a potential war rapidly. China believes it can neutralize US communications through cyber and antisatellite operations, while the US underestimates the resilience of Chinese defenses. The article contends that these misperceptions, rather than shifting power dynamics alone, could draw the two nuclear-armed superpowers into a prolonged and devastating conflict. It urges policymakers to recognize these strategic illusions and the difficulty of compelling surrender in their respective domains to avoid repeating historical tragedies.
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The Real Thucydides Trap: Overconfidence Risks US-China War
This analytical article by Joshua Rovner challenges the traditional interpretation of the Thucydides Trap, arguing that the primary danger in US-China relations is not power transition but mutual overconfidence. Drawing parallels to the Peloponnesian War, where Athens and Sparta held stable comparative advantages yet still engaged in a ruinous conflict due to illusions of quick victory, the author warns that Beijing and Washington face similar risks. China dominates as a land power in East Asia, while the United States maintains superior naval projection capabilities. Despite this strategic stalemate theoretically discouraging direct hostilities, both nations harbor dangerous assumptions about winning a potential war rapidly. China believes it can neutralize US communications through cyber and antisatellite operations, while the US underestimates the resilience of Chinese defenses. The article contends that these misperceptions, rather than shifting power dynamics alone, could draw the two nuclear-armed superpowers into a prolonged and devastating conflict. It urges policymakers to recognize these strategic illusions and the difficulty of compelling surrender in their respective domains to avoid repeating historical tragedies.
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