Predicting Temporal Stability and Resilience from Resistance and Recovery
A new study published in Nature explores the theoretical and empirical relationships between temporal stability, resilience, resistance, and recovery in ecological systems. The research develops predictions on how long-term stability and resilience depend on their components: resisting displacement during perturbations and recovering afterward. Using data from the world’s longest-running biodiversity experiment, the authors found that long-term temporal stability of plant productivity could be predicted with moderate accuracy using single-year estimates of resistance alone, with minimal improvement from adding recovery data. In contrast, resilience was best predicted by a combination of both resistance and recovery at the ecosystem level. Furthermore, the study reveals that ecosystem drought resistance can be forecasted by monitoring temporal stability prior to drought events. These findings clarify how resistance and recovery mechanisms interact, offering new approaches to predict and enhance the stability of natural and managed systems facing increasing environmental perturbations such as climate change.
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Predicting Temporal Stability and Resilience from Resistance and Recovery
A new study published in Nature explores the theoretical and empirical relationships between temporal stability, resilience, resistance, and recovery in ecological systems. The research develops predictions on how long-term stability and resilience depend on their components: resisting displacement during perturbations and recovering afterward. Using data from the world’s longest-running biodiversity experiment, the authors found that long-term temporal stability of plant productivity could be predicted with moderate accuracy using single-year estimates of resistance alone, with minimal improvement from adding recovery data. In contrast, resilience was best predicted by a combination of both resistance and recovery at the ecosystem level. Furthermore, the study reveals that ecosystem drought resistance can be forecasted by monitoring temporal stability prior to drought events. These findings clarify how resistance and recovery mechanisms interact, offering new approaches to predict and enhance the stability of natural and managed systems facing increasing environmental perturbations such as climate change.
Nature