New Yorker: IRGC Hardliners Fill Power Vacuum in Iran Amid US Negotiations
According to The New Yorker, the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Israeli airstrikes has created a power vacuum in Iran, now occupied by hardline figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). While former US President Donald Trump seeks a compliant successor, real authority lies with senior IRGC commanders like Mohammad-Baqer Zolqadr and Ahmad Vahidi, rather than public figures such as Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf. Recent high-level talks between Iran and the US in Pakistan ended without agreement over Iran's nuclear program, prompting Trump to announce a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts highlight that Iran’s decentralized power structure, involving the IRGC, judiciary, and security councils, complicates negotiations. Unlike previous leadership, current hardliners are more militaristic and risk-prone, evidenced by reciprocal strikes on regional energy infrastructure. Despite this, they show willingness to negotiate while maintaining military readiness. Internal skepticism among younger IRGC commanders, who view nuclear weapons as essential deterrence, remains a significant barrier. Mojtaba Khamenei, though injured and absent, retains influence through IRGC ties. Ultimately, no single individual holds decisive power, requiring consensus among various factions for any potential agreement with the United States.
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New Yorker: IRGC Hardliners Fill Power Vacuum in Iran Amid US Negotiations
According to The New Yorker, the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Israeli airstrikes has created a power vacuum in Iran, now occupied by hardline figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). While former US President Donald Trump seeks a compliant successor, real authority lies with senior IRGC commanders like Mohammad-Baqer Zolqadr and Ahmad Vahidi, rather than public figures such as Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf. Recent high-level talks between Iran and the US in Pakistan ended without agreement over Iran's nuclear program, prompting Trump to announce a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts highlight that Iran’s decentralized power structure, involving the IRGC, judiciary, and security councils, complicates negotiations. Unlike previous leadership, current hardliners are more militaristic and risk-prone, evidenced by reciprocal strikes on regional energy infrastructure. Despite this, they show willingness to negotiate while maintaining military readiness. Internal skepticism among younger IRGC commanders, who view nuclear weapons as essential deterrence, remains a significant barrier. Mojtaba Khamenei, though injured and absent, retains influence through IRGC ties. Ultimately, no single individual holds decisive power, requiring consensus among various factions for any potential agreement with the United States.
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