New Research Indicates Atlantic Current Collapse More Likely Than Previously Thought
New scientific research indicates that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is significantly more likely to collapse than previously estimated. By combining real-world ocean observations with climate models, scientists determined that models predicting the most severe slowdowns are the most realistic. The study estimates a 42% to 58% slowdown by 2100, a trajectory almost certain to lead to total collapse. Experts describe the findings as very concerning, noting that the AMOC is already at its weakest point in 1,600 years due to the climate crisis. A collapse would have catastrophic consequences, including extreme cold winters and droughts in Western Europe, disrupted tropical rainfall belts affecting food security in Africa and the Americas, and significant sea-level rises. Lead researcher Dr. Valentin Portmann and Professor Stefan Rahmstorf warn that the system is closer to a tipping point than average models suggested, with some experts fearing the shutdown could become inevitable by the mid-21st century. This development highlights the urgent need to address global heating, which drives the slowdown through Arctic warming and reduced water density.
Wire timeline
New Research Indicates Atlantic Current Collapse More Likely Than Previously Thought
New scientific research indicates that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is significantly more likely to collapse than previously estimated. By combining real-world ocean observations with climate models, scientists determined that models predicting the most severe slowdowns are the most realistic. The study estimates a 42% to 58% slowdown by 2100, a trajectory almost certain to lead to total collapse. Experts describe the findings as very concerning, noting that the AMOC is already at its weakest point in 1,600 years due to the climate crisis. A collapse would have catastrophic consequences, including extreme cold winters and droughts in Western Europe, disrupted tropical rainfall belts affecting food security in Africa and the Americas, and significant sea-level rises. Lead researcher Dr. Valentin Portmann and Professor Stefan Rahmstorf warn that the system is closer to a tipping point than average models suggested, with some experts fearing the shutdown could become inevitable by the mid-21st century. This development highlights the urgent need to address global heating, which drives the slowdown through Arctic warming and reduced water density.
The Guardian