NBER Study: Trump 2.0 ICE Enforcement Harms U.S.-Born Workers in Immigrant-Heavy Sectors
A National Bureau of Economic Research working paper by Elizabeth Cox and Chloe N. East provides the first causal, national empirical analysis of labor market impacts resulting from heightened immigration enforcement during the second Trump administration. Utilizing an event study and difference-in-differences design, the authors leverage geographic variations in arrest increases to classify areas as treated or control groups. The study reveals that regions with significant spikes in ICE arrests experienced a notable decrease in work participation among likely undocumented immigrants who remained in the U.S. Crucially, the research finds no evidence of positive spillover effects for U.S.-born workers. Instead, it indicates that U.S.-born employees working in immigrant-heavy sectors suffered negative consequences, contradicting arguments that strict enforcement benefits native-born labor markets. Published in April 2026, this analysis challenges prevailing narratives regarding the economic benefits of deportation and aggressive immigration crackdowns, highlighting unintended adverse effects on domestic workers in specific industries. The findings have been cited by major news outlets, emphasizing the complex interplay between immigration policy and broader labor market dynamics.
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NBER Study: Trump 2.0 ICE Enforcement Harms U.S.-Born Workers in Immigrant-Heavy Sectors
A National Bureau of Economic Research working paper by Elizabeth Cox and Chloe N. East provides the first causal, national empirical analysis of labor market impacts resulting from heightened immigration enforcement during the second Trump administration. Utilizing an event study and difference-in-differences design, the authors leverage geographic variations in arrest increases to classify areas as treated or control groups. The study reveals that regions with significant spikes in ICE arrests experienced a notable decrease in work participation among likely undocumented immigrants who remained in the U.S. Crucially, the research finds no evidence of positive spillover effects for U.S.-born workers. Instead, it indicates that U.S.-born employees working in immigrant-heavy sectors suffered negative consequences, contradicting arguments that strict enforcement benefits native-born labor markets. Published in April 2026, this analysis challenges prevailing narratives regarding the economic benefits of deportation and aggressive immigration crackdowns, highlighting unintended adverse effects on domestic workers in specific industries. The findings have been cited by major news outlets, emphasizing the complex interplay between immigration policy and broader labor market dynamics.
National Bureau of Economic Research Working Papers