Analysis: US Miscalculations in the 40-Day War with Iran

This analytical article examines why the United States' military engagement with Iran deviated significantly from Washington's initial plans, resulting in a costly 40-day war of attrition rather than a swift victory. The author, an Iranian government official, argues that the US fundamentally misread Iran's strategic posture and capabilities. Key miscalculations included assuming Iran would replicate its behavior from a previous 12-day conflict with Israel, ignoring Tehran's shift toward targeting US regional bases, and underestimating Iran's advanced missile and air defense systems. Furthermore, Washington incorrectly predicted internal political collapse in Iran, failing to recognize how external threats fostered domestic social cohesion and resistance. The US also underestimated the operational coordination of the 'axis of resistance' and overestimated NATO support. These errors, combined with the disruption of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and growing domestic opposition in the US, trapped Washington in a prolonged conflict with heavy military, economic, and political costs, highlighting a deep disconnect between American intelligence assessments and battlefield realities.