Merchants of Certainty: The Shift from Uncertainty to Alarm in Climate Advocacy
This analytical article by Alex Trembath examines the evolution of climate change discourse over the past forty years. It argues that the climate movement has shifted from acknowledging scientific uncertainty as a basis for risk management to demanding absolute certainty and framing doubt as denial. Historically, figures like Nobel laureate William Nordhaus emphasized hedging against unknown risks, akin to a casino. However, influenced by works like Merchants of Doubt, modern advocates now portray climate change as an immediate catastrophe caused by fossil fuel industries. This narrative shift involves exaggerating extreme weather links and using dire scenarios to narrow solutions to litigation and regulation rather than broad resilience planning. The piece traces this transformation back to James Hansen’s 1988 Senate testimony, contrasting it with earlier scientific understandings. Trembath critiques the current approach for abandoning the nuanced view of climate change as a long-term emergent risk requiring technological and societal adaptation, instead favoring a moralistic campaign against perceived perpetrators.
Wire timeline
Merchants of Certainty: The Shift from Uncertainty to Alarm in Climate Advocacy
This analytical article by Alex Trembath examines the evolution of climate change discourse over the past forty years. It argues that the climate movement has shifted from acknowledging scientific uncertainty as a basis for risk management to demanding absolute certainty and framing doubt as denial. Historically, figures like Nobel laureate William Nordhaus emphasized hedging against unknown risks, akin to a casino. However, influenced by works like Merchants of Doubt, modern advocates now portray climate change as an immediate catastrophe caused by fossil fuel industries. This narrative shift involves exaggerating extreme weather links and using dire scenarios to narrow solutions to litigation and regulation rather than broad resilience planning. The piece traces this transformation back to James Hansen’s 1988 Senate testimony, contrasting it with earlier scientific understandings. Trembath critiques the current approach for abandoning the nuanced view of climate change as a long-term emergent risk requiring technological and societal adaptation, instead favoring a moralistic campaign against perceived perpetrators.
Asterisk