May 2026 Brazil Presidential Polls Show Tight Lula-Bolsonaro Race
Multiple polls released in mid-May 2026 reveal a highly competitive Brazilian presidential race between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. While regional data from Amazonas shows Flávio leading, national surveys by Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, and Gerp indicate a statistical tie or slight variations in first and second-round scenarios. The results highlight significant political polarization and volatility, with other candidates trailing far behind. These snapshots reflect intense pre-campaign dynamics ahead of the 2026 elections, underscoring the divided electorate.
Cross-source coverage
Wire timeline
Poll Shows Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro Tied Amid Film Funding Scandal in Brazil
A recent Datafolha poll indicates a dead heat in Brazil’s upcoming presidential election, with incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and right-wing challenger Flavio Bolsonaro each securing 45 percent of voter support in a potential runoff. The survey, conducted in mid-May 2026, precedes the emergence of a significant scandal involving Senator Flavio Bolsonaro. Reports from The Intercept Brasil revealed leaked messages showing Flavio and his brother Eduardo soliciting $24 million in funding for a biopic about their imprisoned father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, from disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro. Vorcaro is currently arrested for leading a multibillion-dollar fraud scheme. While Flavio Bolsonaro defended the outreach as private sponsorship for a private film, left-wing lawmakers have demanded an investigation. Jair Bolsonaro remains incarcerated on a 27-year sentence for attempting to subvert the 2022 election results. This controversy adds pressure to Flavio’s campaign as he seeks to continue his father’s political legacy, while Lula aims for a fourth nonconsecutive term. The tight race underscores the deep political polarization in Brazil as the October election approaches.
Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraLula Allies Claim Flávio Bolsonaro Stalled Before 'Dark Horse' Scandal; Opposition Dismisses Impact
A recent Datafolha poll indicates that President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro remain tied in voting intentions at 45% each in a hypothetical second-round election. Allies of President Lula interpret these results as evidence that Flávio’s campaign was already losing momentum prior to the recent revelation of the 'Dark Horse' scandal. This controversy involves leaked conversations where Flávio allegedly requested additional funds from Daniel Vorcaro, former owner of Banco Master, to finance a biographical film about his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro. While Lula’s coalition argues this demonstrates political fatigue and potential vulnerability for the opposition, Flávio’s allies minimize the electoral impact, describing the situation as a narrative war that does not alter the current political landscape. Flávio Bolsonaro has publicly stated he will not withdraw from the race despite the accusations. The Federal Police are currently investigating whether funds from Vorcaro were also used to support Eduardo Bolsonaro’s expenses abroad. The poll data was collected before the public release of the incriminating messages, suggesting the tie reflects pre-scandal sentiment.
Folha de S.Paulo - Em cima da hora - PrincipalBrazil's Lula Tied with Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in Datafolha Poll
A recent Datafolha poll indicates that a potential second-round runoff in October between Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro would result in a statistical tie. Both candidates are projected to secure 45% of the vote, maintaining the deadlock observed in April’s polling data within the margin of error. In a hypothetical first-round scenario, Lula leads with 38% support, while Flavio Bolsonaro follows with 35%. The survey, which interviewed 2,004 voters, was largely conducted before the publication of an Intercept Brasil report alleging that Flavio Bolsonaro negotiated a 134 million reais payment from imprisoned former banker Daniel Vorcaro to finance a film about his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro. Flavio Bolsonaro has denied any wrongdoing regarding these allegations. The poll highlights the continued political polarization in Brazil as the next election cycle approaches, with the Bolsonaro family maintaining significant electoral strength despite ongoing legal controversies surrounding its members.
The Straits Times World NewsFlávio Bolsonaro Compares Lula to Devil and Reaffirms Presidential Bid Amid Scandal
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) has reaffirmed his pre-candidacy for the Brazilian Presidency, framing the upcoming October election as a spiritual battle between God and the devil. Speaking at a political event in Sorocaba, he criticized President Lula, falsely attributing a quote about doing the devil's work to him, while asserting that his own camp represents truth and strength. These remarks come shortly after Intercept Brasil published leaked conversations between Flávio and banker Daniel Vorcaro regarding payments for a film about former President Jair Bolsonaro. Despite these controversies, Flávio claimed his opponents underestimated him and failed to intimidate him. Recent Datafolha polling indicates a tight race, with Flávio and President Lula tied at 45% each in a simulated second-round matchup. The survey was conducted primarily before the publication of the leaked messages. Flávio continues to attack the current PT government, describing the country as upside down, while rallying support from allies like Governor Tarcísio de Freitas.
Folha de S.Paulo - Em cima da hora - PrincipalDatafolha: Flávio Bolsonaro Leads Lula Among Independent Voters in Hypothetical Runoff
A recent Datafolha survey indicates that Senator Flávio Bolsonaro holds a numerical advantage over President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva among voters who identify as politically independent. In a hypothetical second-round matchup, Flávio secured 38% of voting intentions compared to Lula's 32%, although the five-percentage-point margin of error renders this a technical tie. Additionally, 27% of independent respondents indicated they would cast blank or null votes. Analysts highlight this demographic as potentially decisive in a polarized election. In the first-round scenario, Lula maintains a slight lead with 38% support, closely followed by Flávio at 35%. Other candidates, including Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado, trail significantly with 3% each. The poll, conducted between May 12 and 13, 2026, involved 2,004 interviews across 139 Brazilian municipalities. The survey was released amidst ongoing political discussions involving Flávio Bolsonaro. The data suggests a competitive race where independent voters remain a critical swing group, with significant portions still undecided or unwilling to support either major candidate.
ExameDatafolha: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro Lead Rejection Rates in 2026 Election Poll
A recent Datafolha survey released on May 16, 2026, reveals that Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro lead both the electoral race and rejection rates. Lula holds a 47% rejection rate, while Flávio follows closely at 43%. These figures have remained stable since April, showing only minor negative variations. In a simulated second-round matchup, the two candidates are tied with 45% of voting intentions each. In a broader first-round scenario including all pre-candidates, Lula leads with 38% support against Flávio's 35%. Both politicians also dominate voter knowledge indices, with minimal percentages of respondents unfamiliar with them. In contrast, other potential candidates like Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado face significantly higher unknown rates, exceeding 50%. The poll, based on 2,004 interviews across 139 municipalities, was conducted before recent controversies involving Flávio Bolsonaro emerged. The margin of error is two percentage points, providing a snapshot of a tightly contested political landscape ahead of the 2026 elections.
ExameDatafolha Poll: Lula Leads Flávio Bolsonaro by 3 Points in 2026 First Round
A recent Datafolha survey released on May 16, 2026, indicates that Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holds a slight lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of the upcoming presidential election. Lula secured 38% of voting intentions, while Flávio Bolsonaro followed closely with 35%. Other candidates, including Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado, trailed significantly with 3% each. The poll also simulated a scenario involving Ciro Gomes, where Lula's support dipped to 37% and Flávio's to 34%, with Gomes capturing 5%. Notably, the majority of the 2,004 interviews were conducted before recent controversies affecting Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign, specifically regarding allegations involving Daniel Vorcaro from Banco Master and the documentary 'Dark Horse' about his father. The survey, registered with the Superior Electoral Court, has a margin of error of two percentage points. Blank and null votes accounted for 9% in the primary scenario. This data highlights a tight race, suggesting that recent political crises could potentially shift voter sentiment in the coming weeks as the election approaches.
ExameDatafolha Poll: Lula Ties with Flávio Bolsonaro in Second Round Scenario
A new Datafolha survey released on May 16, 2026, indicates a statistical tie between current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in a hypothetical second-round presidential election. Both candidates secured 45% of voting intentions, while 9% of respondents indicated they would vote blank or null. The poll was conducted between May 12 and 13, prior to the public revelation of alleged conversations linking Flávio Bolsonaro to former banker Daniel Vorcaro, suggesting the results do not reflect the potential impact of this recent controversy. Additionally, the survey highlights Lula's lead over other right-wing contenders. In matchups against Romeu Zema (Novo) and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), Lula holds 46% support compared to 40% for Zema and 39% for Caiado. The study interviewed 2,004 individuals across 139 municipalities, with a margin of error of two percentage points. This data marks a shift from previous April polls where Lula was in a technical tie with all mentioned opponents, now showing a distinct advantage over Zema and Caiado while remaining deadlocked with Flávio Bolsonaro.
ExamePolls Show Tight Race Between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro for 2026 Presidency
Two national surveys released in mid-May 2026 highlight a competitive presidential race in Brazil between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. The Genial/Quaest poll, conducted from May 11 to 15, places Lula ahead in the first round with 39% of voting intentions compared to Flávio’s 33%. However, in a simulated second-round scenario, the two candidates are effectively tied, with Lula at 42% and Flávio at 41%, within the margin of error. Conversely, the Gerp survey presents a different outlook, showing Flávio leading in both rounds. In the first round, Flávio secured 36% against Lula’s 34%. In a head-to-head second-round simulation, Flávio holds a significant advantage with 50% of the vote versus Lula’s 43%. These conflicting results underscore the volatility and intensity of the pre-campaign period for the 2026 elections, with both major political figures demonstrating strong but fluctuating support bases across different methodologies.
ExameDatafolha to Release New Presidential Election Poll This Saturday
Datafolha, a prominent Brazilian polling institute, is scheduled to release a new survey regarding the 2026 presidential election scenario on Saturday, May 16, 2026. The upcoming report will provide detailed insights into voter intentions for both the first and second rounds of the election. Additionally, the survey measures candidate rejection rates and public assessment of the current administration led by President Lula of the Workers' Party (PT). This release follows an April survey where Lula maintained technical ties with key opponents, including Romeu Zema of the Novo party and Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD, while trailing slightly behind Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the PL party. The article contextualizes these figures within a broader field of pre-candidates, such as Cabo Daciolo and Augusto Cury. It emphasizes that these polls serve as a snapshot of current public opinion rather than definitive predictions of the final electoral outcome. The report highlights the competitive nature of the race, noting the narrow margins between the incumbent and major challengers, reflecting a polarized political environment in Brazil leading up to the 2026 elections.
Folha de S.Paulo - Em cima da hora - PrincipalAtlasIntel Poll: Flávio Bolsonaro Leads Lula in Amazonas First-Round Voting Intentions
A recent AtlasIntel poll conducted in the state of Amazonas reveals that Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) holds a narrow lead over President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in the first round of the 2026 presidential election. The survey, published on May 15, 2026, indicates Flávio Bolsonaro has 43.9% of voting intentions, compared to Lula's 40.9%. Other candidates, including Renan Santos and Romeu Zema, trail significantly with single-digit support. In simulated second-round scenarios, Flávio Bolsonaro maintains his advantage, defeating Lula with 47.8% against 41.7%. However, Lula performs better against other potential opponents like Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado. The poll also highlights significant dissatisfaction with Lula's administration in the region, with a 55% disapproval rate and only 41% approval. The study interviewed 1,244 voters between May 8 and 14, carrying a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. This data underscores the competitive political landscape in Amazonas for the upcoming election cycle.
Exame