On Iran Outcome, Nobody Knows Anything—Yet
This opinion piece by Holman W. Jenkins, Jr. for The Wall Street Journal analyzes the profound uncertainty surrounding the outcome of recent tensions involving Iran and the United States. The author employs the economist's joke about assuming a can opener to illustrate the lack of viable solutions or clear insights into the current geopolitical stalemate. The article highlights dissatisfaction from multiple political factions regarding Donald Trump's handling of the situation. Critics who previously supported Trump's hopes for regime change in Iran are now unsettled by the unstable nature of the cease-fire. Conversely, opponents of Trump's policies are depicted as exploiting his reluctance to engage in further military actions, which they would otherwise condemn, to criticize his leadership. The core argument emphasizes that the 'fog of war' is particularly dense because external observers cannot see inside the critical decision-making processes that will determine the future trajectory of the conflict. Consequently, definitive judgments on the success or failure of current diplomatic and military strategies remain premature, leaving all parties in a state of ambiguous anticipation.
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On Iran Outcome, Nobody Knows Anything—Yet
This opinion piece by Holman W. Jenkins, Jr. for The Wall Street Journal analyzes the profound uncertainty surrounding the outcome of recent tensions involving Iran and the United States. The author employs the economist's joke about assuming a can opener to illustrate the lack of viable solutions or clear insights into the current geopolitical stalemate. The article highlights dissatisfaction from multiple political factions regarding Donald Trump's handling of the situation. Critics who previously supported Trump's hopes for regime change in Iran are now unsettled by the unstable nature of the cease-fire. Conversely, opponents of Trump's policies are depicted as exploiting his reluctance to engage in further military actions, which they would otherwise condemn, to criticize his leadership. The core argument emphasizes that the 'fog of war' is particularly dense because external observers cannot see inside the critical decision-making processes that will determine the future trajectory of the conflict. Consequently, definitive judgments on the success or failure of current diplomatic and military strategies remain premature, leaving all parties in a state of ambiguous anticipation.
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