IMD Predicts Early Southwest Monsoon Onset in Kerala with Below-Normal Rainfall Forecast
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts the southwest monsoon will reach Kerala on May 26, 2026, six days earlier than the normal June 1 onset. Despite this early arrival, the agency predicts below-normal rainfall for the season, estimated at 92% of the long-period average, due to developing El Niño conditions. This outlook raises significant concerns for India’s agriculture-dependent economy, as the monsoon drives kharif crop sowing and water resources. While initial progress in the Bay of Bengal is favorable, potential fertilizer supply disruptions and heat waves in other regions compound the risks for farmers and food security.
Editorial summary awaiting refresh
Cross-source coverage
Wire timeline
Southwest Monsoon Advances into Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal; Early Onset Expected in Kerala
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) reported on May 16, 2026, that the southwest monsoon has advanced into parts of the southeast Arabian Sea, the southwest and southeast Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea, and the Nicobar Islands. The department confirmed that all criteria for the monsoon's advance are satisfied and conditions remain favorable for further progression into additional regions over the next three to four days. Previously, on May 15, the IMD predicted an early onset of the monsoon over Kerala, scheduled for May 26, which is earlier than the usual June 1 start date. This early arrival marks the beginning of the critical June-to-September rainy season for India. However, despite the early onset, the IMD has cautioned that the country might experience below-normal rainfall during the upcoming monsoon season. This deficit is attributed to the emerging El Niño conditions, a climate pattern known to suppress rainfall across the Indian subcontinent. The report highlights both the immediate meteorological developments and the broader seasonal forecast implications for agriculture and water resources in the region.
News Today: Breaking News, Top Headlines & Live Updates | The HinduSouthwest Monsoon Arrives Early in Nicobar Islands and Bay of Bengal Regions
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that the Southwest monsoon has made an early onset over the Nicobar Islands, parts of the Andaman Sea, and areas of the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea as of May 16, 2026. This arrival is at least six days earlier than the normal scheduled date of May 22 for the south Andaman Sea and Port Blair. The declaration was based on key meteorological criteria, including increased rainfall activity, strengthening westerly winds, and favorable Outgoing Longwave Radiation values indicating convective cloud mass. The IMD noted that conditions remain conducive for the monsoon to advance further into remaining parts of the Andaman Islands and the east-central Bay of Bengal in the coming days. Looking ahead, the official onset of the monsoon over Kerala is predicted for May 26, which will mark the beginning of the four-month monsoon season for the rest of India. Historical data included in the report shows variability in onset dates from 2019 to 2026, with the earliest recent onset occurring in 2025.
The Indian ExpressIMD Predicts Southwest Monsoon to Reach Kerala on May 26
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that the southwest monsoon is expected to reach Kerala on May 26, 2026, slightly ahead of the normal onset date of June 1. The monsoon has already approached the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and the Bay of Bengal, with the final advance to mainland India typically taking ten days, though weather systems like cyclones can cause delays. While the IMD boasts a high accuracy rate for its onset forecasts over the past two decades, this year brings concerns regarding rainfall quantity rather than just timing. Agencies have warned of potential below-normal rainfall, attributed largely to the developing El Nino phenomenon, which historically depresses Indian monsoon rains. This prediction raises alarms for the agricultural sector, particularly for the upcoming kharif season, which relies heavily on rainfed farming. Compounding these weather risks are anticipated disruptions in fertilizer supplies due to ongoing conflicts in West Asia. The IMD noted that while initial rainfall post-onset is expected to be good, subsequent progress depends on evolving meteorological models. Last year, the monsoon arrived on May 24, marking its earliest entry since 2009.
News Today: Breaking News, Top Headlines & Live Updates | The HinduMonsoon to Hit Kerala on May 26, Six Days Early; IMD Forecasts Below-Normal Rainfall
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that the southwest monsoon is likely to arrive in Kerala on May 26, 2026, which is six days earlier than the normal onset date of June 1. This prediction comes with a model error margin of plus or minus four days. Despite the early arrival in Kerala, the IMD forecasts below-normal rainfall for the entire 2026 season, estimating it at 92% of the long-period average. This outlook is influenced by concerns over the El Nino weather phenomenon, which typically adversely affects Indian rainfall. The monsoon's onset is critical for India's agriculture, as it initiates sowing operations for key kharif crops such as rice, pulses, oilseeds, cotton, and sugarcane. With approximately 70% of India's farmland being rain-fed, the monsoon's performance directly impacts farm output, food security, and inflation. While conditions are favorable for the monsoon's progress in the South Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea, heat wave conditions are still expected to persist in northwest and central India. State agricultural departments are currently preparing seeds and fertilizers to support farmers ahead of the rainy season.
Economic TimesIMD Predicts Early Southwest Monsoon Onset in Kerala on May 26
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast that the southwest monsoon is likely to arrive in Kerala on May 26, slightly earlier than the normal date of June 1. This prediction carries a model error margin of plus or minus four days. The onset of the monsoon in Kerala signifies the beginning of the crucial rainy season, which typically lasts from June to September and accounts for approximately 70% of India's annual rainfall. While the early arrival marks the transition from summer heat to the rainy season, the IMD cautioned that the timing does not guarantee the monsoon's subsequent progress or intensity. Notably, the department predicts below-normal rainfall for the upcoming season, estimating an average of 80 cm compared to the long-period average of 87 cm. This deficit is attributed to the evolving El Nino conditions in the equatorial Pacific, which historically correlate with reduced precipitation in India. The monsoon's performance is vital for the country's agriculture, economy, and water resources. Favorable conditions for the monsoon's advance are also expected over the South Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea in the immediate future.
Home Page