BP Forecasts Exceptional Q1 Trading Profits Amid Iran War Oil Volatility
BP anticipates exceptional earnings from its oil trading division in the first quarter of 2026, driven by significant market volatility resulting from the US-Israeli war on Iran. The conflict, which led to Tehran effectively closing the strategic Strait of Hormuz, caused Brent crude prices to surge, averaging $78 per barrel during the quarter compared to $63 previously. Consequently, Citi analysts have upgraded BP’s profit forecast by 20% to $2.6 billion for January through March, despite the company’s oil and gas production remaining flat. Refining margins also strengthened to $16.9 per barrel, potentially boosting refined product earnings by $100 million to $200 million. This trend mirrors rival Shell’s recent announcement of higher trading profits. However, the International Energy Agency has cut global oil demand forecasts, predicting an annual decline of 80,000 barrels per day due to supply disruptions and economic impacts. BP is scheduled to report its official first-quarter results on April 28, as new CEO Meg O’Neill prepares to address shareholders regarding the company’s strategic focus on profitability in oil and gas.
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BP Forecasts Exceptional Q1 Trading Profits Amid Iran War Oil Volatility
BP anticipates exceptional earnings from its oil trading division in the first quarter of 2026, driven by significant market volatility resulting from the US-Israeli war on Iran. The conflict, which led to Tehran effectively closing the strategic Strait of Hormuz, caused Brent crude prices to surge, averaging $78 per barrel during the quarter compared to $63 previously. Consequently, Citi analysts have upgraded BP’s profit forecast by 20% to $2.6 billion for January through March, despite the company’s oil and gas production remaining flat. Refining margins also strengthened to $16.9 per barrel, potentially boosting refined product earnings by $100 million to $200 million. This trend mirrors rival Shell’s recent announcement of higher trading profits. However, the International Energy Agency has cut global oil demand forecasts, predicting an annual decline of 80,000 barrels per day due to supply disruptions and economic impacts. BP is scheduled to report its official first-quarter results on April 28, as new CEO Meg O’Neill prepares to address shareholders regarding the company’s strategic focus on profitability in oil and gas.
The Guardian