Analyst: Breaking Bitcoin's 200-Day EMA Could Signal End of Bear Market
Bitcoin faces a critical technical juncture as it struggles to break above the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), currently near $82,580. Recent rejection at this resistance level has triggered a 2.25% decline to approximately $80,500, raising fears of further downside. Historical data indicates that previous rejections from this specific indicator led to significant sell-offs of 25% and 36%, suggesting a potential drop toward the $56,000 to $60,000 range. Analyst Brett suggests that a decisive break above the 200-day EMA would mark the end of the bear market. Conversely, the Bitcoin Lifetime Support Model identifies strong macro support between $46,760 and $57,110, which could serve as a floor if prices decline. Despite near-term bearish signals, including an unresolved bear flag pattern, longer-term indicators remain optimistic. Bitcoin’s recent 38% rebound from the 200-week simple moving average mirrors historical cycle bottoms from 2018 and 2020. If this bullish fractal continues, the next upside target could reach $94,700. This outlook is further supported by fundamental strength, notably aggressive accumulation by whales who have recently absorbed nearly 500% of newly issued Bitcoin supply.
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Analyst: Breaking Bitcoin's 200-Day EMA Could Signal End of Bear Market
Bitcoin faces a critical technical juncture as it struggles to break above the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), currently near $82,580. Recent rejection at this resistance level has triggered a 2.25% decline to approximately $80,500, raising fears of further downside. Historical data indicates that previous rejections from this specific indicator led to significant sell-offs of 25% and 36%, suggesting a potential drop toward the $56,000 to $60,000 range. Analyst Brett suggests that a decisive break above the 200-day EMA would mark the end of the bear market. Conversely, the Bitcoin Lifetime Support Model identifies strong macro support between $46,760 and $57,110, which could serve as a floor if prices decline. Despite near-term bearish signals, including an unresolved bear flag pattern, longer-term indicators remain optimistic. Bitcoin’s recent 38% rebound from the 200-week simple moving average mirrors historical cycle bottoms from 2018 and 2020. If this bullish fractal continues, the next upside target could reach $94,700. This outlook is further supported by fundamental strength, notably aggressive accumulation by whales who have recently absorbed nearly 500% of newly issued Bitcoin supply.
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