This is no coincidence: Merino scored a last minute winner for the second consecutive round, as Spain eliminated Belgium 2 1.

Merino posted a photo of the moment of the winning goal on Instagram with the caption: "This is no coincidence. The familiar script plays again!"

He wasn't exaggerating. Seven months ago, this player broke a bone in his foot, and now he scored the winner against Belgium in the 88th minute at SoFi Stadium. Two knockout matches, consecutive last-minute winners. Probability can't explain this.

The first-half stats are even harder to explain. Spain's xG—expected goals, which converts each shot into a goal probability based on distance, angle, and defensive pressure—was 1.08. Belgium's was 0.18. By those numbers, Spain should have scored at least one in the first half. In the 30th minute, Fabián Ruiz scored from a rebound, making it look like a rout. In the 41st minute, De Ketelaere headed in a goal, turning that 0.18 probability into a net-finder. A chance under 20%, and it went in. Spain's nearly 650-minute unbeaten streak in this tournament was punctured by a header.

The data model said domination; the scoreboard said nonsense. Spain did dominate the first half, with Rodri controlling possession in midfield, Baena and Yamal launching attacks, but Courtois kept turning them away. Then in the 71st minute, the Belgian goalkeeper suffered a thigh injury and left the field in tears.

Substitute goalkeeper Senne Lammens took over. Seventeen minutes later, Cubarsí's shot came in, Lammens saved it—but spilled it. The ball rolled to the six-yard line, and Merino was already there. Tap-in. 2-1.

The predecessor walked off crying, you stepped up, made saves all game, and at the most fatal second, your hands slipped. That's the fate of a backup goalkeeper.

But why is Merino always in that spot?

In the Round of 16 against Portugal, he scored in the 90+1 minute. Against Belgium, in the 88th minute. Two knockout rounds, same substitute, same death—rebound, deflected ball. His World Cup stats are absurdly cold: 6 appearances, 5 as a substitute. 4 shots, 3 on target, 2 match-winning goals. Big chance conversion rate: 100%. Multiple media outlets named him one of Spain's best players in this match.

De la Fuente said after the game that Merino is "a reliable player who always delivers in key moments." The word "reliable" here weighs like a trophy. In late January, Merino fractured his foot; Arsenal's medical staff didn't dare give a timeline, and he only returned at the end of the Premier League season. De la Fuente stubbornly kept him on the 26-man roster, using him off the bench throughout the tournament, gradually increasing his minutes. A bet placed seven months ago paid off twofold in Los Angeles.

On Belgium's side, the match was bleeding before it even started. Captain Tielemans got injured in the warm-up and was ruled out of the match. In the 71st minute, Courtois went down. Two key players lost in one game. Coach García put on a brave face afterward, saying Belgium "dared to face Spain" and proved themselves "a great football nation." The words sounded tragic, but the game didn't lie—Belgium didn't sit back; the goals just didn't come.

Spain heads into the semifinals with a 37-match unbeaten streak. That ties Italy's national team record from 2018 to 2021. Since March 2023, they've lost 0 matches, with 24 wins and 5 draws. Every victory adds to the record, and every match is a psychological hurdle of "can't lose."

The semifinal is on July 14 in Arlington, against France led by Mbappé. The French are chasing their third consecutive World Cup final. Can 37 become 38? Four days later, the grass in Texas will provide the answer.