The Backlash of Expanding to 48 Teams: How Much Dignity Do the Giants Have Left?

In September of last year, Paraguayan President Peña signed a decree giving the nation a day off to celebrate the national team's return to the World Cup after sixteen years. Nine months later, his team stood at the penalty spot in the round of 32, sending the Germans home. Penalties: 3-4. The streets of Asunción will probably have another day off. In Berlin, no one speaks.

That is the most straightforward image of this World Cup. The nationwide celebration of a small South American nation, opposite the silence of a four-time champion eliminated at the penalty spot in the round of 32. When these two things collide, the expansion's facade becomes impossible to maintain.

Forty-eight teams, seventy-two group stage matches, thirty-two teams advance to the knockout stage. It sounds grand, the threshold lowered. But when you look at the ledger, only three teams finished with a perfect record: France, Argentina, and Mexico. The rest either lost a match or gambled their lives on the penalty spot. Germany lost to Paraguay in the round of 32 on penalties. The Netherlands lost to Morocco in the round of 32, also on penalties. Two European giants, not defeated in open play, but from twelve yards. The expansion added an extra knockout round. Traditional powerhouses expected to grind down opponents with their overall strength in deeper waters. Now there's no buffer. One round decides life or death; penalties become a death trap. Facing twelve yards, the tactics board becomes worthless paper.

Africans are no longer just making up the numbers. Nine African teams squeezed into the round of 32, accounting for nearly 30% of the field, outnumbering South America's five. The last time South America was outnumbered by Africa in knockout stage slots, probably no one remembers, because it never happened. Morocco eliminating the Netherlands on penalties isn't an upset; it's a knock on the door of a new order. Forty-eight spots: Europe thirteen, Africa nine, South America five. The gatekeepers of the old order are now standing in line at the edge of the cliff.

Perfection is what's strange. After seventy-two group stage matches, only three were undefeated. France scored ten goals in three matches, with a +8 goal difference. Dembele scored a hat-trick against Norway in the final round; the attack line was dominant. Argentina relied on Messi's streak of seven consecutive World Cup matches with a goal, pocketing six goals in the group stage, winning decisively. Mexico, as hosts, kept three clean sheets — beat South Korea 1-0, beat Czech Republic 3-0, beat South Africa 2-0; they were tough at home.

But the flip side is more glaring. Uruguay was eliminated in the first round for the second consecutive World Cup. In 2022 in Qatar, even winning against Ghana didn't matter; Korea's last-minute goal against Portugal dragged them down. This year was even more straightforward; they were done after the group stage. A nation that has lifted the World Cup twice can't even get past the group stage, and for two consecutive editions. South Korea wasn't much better; fans blocked the airport to curse Hong Myung-bo. South Africa won one match and, within this chaotic expanded format, squeezed out an Asian team that had previously reached the semi-finals.

Messi has scored in seven consecutive World Cup matches. Argentina scored six goals in the group stage, perfect record. Then they drew Cape Verde.

An island nation with a population of about 530,000, playing in the knockout stage for the first time. 530,000 people couldn't fill the Bernabeu. Their World Cup debut, first opponent is Messi. The expansion gave them a ticket, but no soft landing.

Brazil came from behind to beat Japan 2-1. Canada eliminated South Africa 1-0. Algeria and Austria played to a 3-3 draw, with Karadzic's stoppage-time equalizer being voted the best match of the group stage. Forty-eight teams, seventy-two matches; only three had perfect records: two are title contenders, one is the host. The other twenty-nine teams have all lost on this table.

Argentina vs. Cape Verde. July. Messi awaits the 530,000.