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World Cup Story Feed
On June 15, at Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta, 67,640 people watched a strange game.
On June 15, at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, 67,640 people watched a bizarre match.
Spain fired 27 shots, 7 on target, with an expected goals (xG) of 2.1 and a staggering 74% possession. Cape Verde, on the other hand, had an xG of less than 0.3. Any one of these numbers would typically indicate a 3-0 rout.
The scoreboard at the final whistle read: 0-0.
Pedri single-handedly carried Spain's attacking engine for 90 minutes. His expected assists (xA) were 1.23—according to probability models, the passes he made should have resulted in more than one goal for his teammates. This was the highest single-game xA in the World Cup so far, far ahead of second-place Embolo (0.84) and Kimmich (0.83). He had 5 key passes (most in the match), 129 touches, and Sofascore's algorithm gave him a rating of 9.1.
BBC fan vote: 3.87.
On the same night, for the same person, two completely contradictory verdicts.
Let's rewind the tape.
Cape Verde parked the bus, packing the edge of the penalty area. Whenever Spain's wingers got the ball, they found a wall of legs in front of them and had to pass back inside. Pedri became the man searching for gaps in the cracks. Every forward pass was a gamble: betting that a teammate would make the run, betting that the passing lane would thread through two defensive lines.
When the gamble paid off, it resulted in 5 key passes and 1.23 xA. When it didn't, it meant 21 inaccurate forward passes—also the highest single-game total in this World Cup. WhoScored specifically highlighted this number in a post-match tweet, the subtext clear to everyone: his forward passing was too inaccurate.
Those 21 inaccurate passes and that 1.23 xA are essentially two sides of the same coin. Every time Pedri lost the ball, it was in the process of trying to pry open a welded-shut door. If he wanted to pad his pass completion rate, he could have just passed sideways or backwards. It would have been safe, but Spain's attack would have died with it.
You can bring the ball to the doorstep, but someone has to finish.
Spain's forward line was collectively sleepwalking that night, converting zero of their 27 shots. To make matters worse, Cape Verde's goalkeeper, Vozinha, a 40-year-old veteran making his World Cup debut, pulled off 7 saves. Sofascore gave him a 9.7, the man of the match and the highest rating of the day. The 1.23 xA that Pedri painstakingly created was erased by a 40-year-old goalkeeper with 7 saves.
In the pre-match press conference, Pedri had singled out Cape Verde as a dark horse. At the time, it was dismissed as polite talk. Now, it's clear the guy was more lucid than anyone.
De la Fuente said after the match: "32 games unbeaten, we have zero doubts." He also admitted Cape Verde was "clearly not as strong as us," while praising their defensive organization. A team that was "clearly stronger" played 90 minutes in front of 67,640 people and didn't win.
Now, consider the most absurd number: the BBC fan rating of 3.87.
Sofascore's algorithm looks at the process. How many key passes did you make? How much xG did you create? How many times did you win back possession? Pedri won back possession 8 times, including 6 times in the attacking third—the most in the match. The algorithm factors all this in and outputs a 9.1.
The fan vote looks at something else entirely.
Spain's pre-match odds were -1500, implying a 92% win probability according to prediction markets. Cape Verde was 28/1. The odds for a 0-0 draw were around 10/1. Someone actually bet about $430,000 on Cape Verde not losing and walked away with over $4.3 million after the match.
A 92% win probability shattered on the ground, millions of dollars changing hands in 90 minutes. Who do those watching the odds take their anger out on?
You can't blame a 40-year-old debutant goalkeeper for playing too well, and it's too much effort to curse the invisible forwards. The most obvious target is always the one with the flashiest stats, the strongest presence, but whose name isn't on the scoreboard.
The algorithm sees how many meals you served; the fans only see that not a single meal was cooked. The 3.87 rating has nothing to do with footballing ability. It's pure emotion: "I bet on Spain to win, just score one, damn it!"
A Cape Verde fan said to the camera after the match: "Growing up in Cape Verde, I never thought I'd see something like this in my life."
Cape Verdeans treat it as a miracle; gamblers curse it as a scam. The same 0-0, breaking both sides.
In the next two group stage matches, Pedri's numbers visibly became more ordinary.
Against Uruguay, Spain won 1-0. Youngster Baena scored in the 42nd minute. Pedri had 1 key pass, 63 touches, and an 88% pass completion rate. The numbers weren't flashy, but the team got three points.
This is probably the survival rule of the group stage in a tournament. The midfield maestro's job is to deliver the ball into dangerous areas. Whether it gets finished is out of his hands. Rather than making 21 risky passes every game for a 0-0, it's better to distribute the ball safely and let the result speak for itself.
Pedri delivered the highest single-game xA of this World Cup (1.23) on that night against Cape Verde.
The scoreboard read 0-0.
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