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At 124 minutes and 44 seconds, Youri Tielemans scored the penalty kick, setting a new record for the latest goal in World Cup history. Belgium also claimed another record: the first team in World Cup history to be two goals down after the 85th minute and ultimately avoid defeat.
At 124 minutes and 44 seconds, Youri Tielemans converted a penalty, setting a new record for the latest goal in World Cup history. Belgium also claimed another record: the first team in World Cup history to avoid defeat after trailing by two goals beyond the 85th minute.
These two records could not overshadow another set of numbers. Senegal's expected goals (xG) for the match was 2.7959, while Belgium's was 0.9572. BBC's real-time statistics showed a nearly three-goal gap in expected goals, yet it was Senegal who lost.
Senegal led 2-0 at the 85th minute. Holding on for just five more minutes would have secured their best-ever World Cup result. Instead, they conceded two goals in four minutes, were dragged into extra time, and ultimately lost on a penalty.
When Romelu Lukaku pulled one back in the 86th minute, you could still say Belgium were fighting for their lives. But when Tielemans equalized with a header in the 89th minute, questions had to be asked of Senegal goalkeeper Mory Diaw. The 33-year-old, playing for Le Havre, was only in the starting lineup due to an injury to first-choice goalkeeper Edouard Mendy. Diaw made a fatal error in judgment on Tielemans' header, letting the ball slip through his hands and into the net.
Senegal coach Pape Thiaw admitted after the match that dropping deep after taking a 2-0 lead was a serious mistake. It was reported that he substituted forwards for defenders, causing the entire defensive line to drop too deep, ceding possession and the area in front of the box. It was only a matter of time before they were overwhelmed. There were also reports of Pape Siss lying on the penalty spot to waste time. Time-wasting is common in football, but doing so with a two-goal lead showed the team's mentality had shifted from "securing the win" to "begging them to stop."
Shots were 16 to 13, shots on target 4 to 4, and possession 53.3% to 46.7%. On paper, Belgium were not outplayed.
But the xG of 2.8 to 0.96 told the real story. Senegal created far higher quality chances than the scoreline suggested. Belgium were dominated throughout the match and scored three goals from just three shots on target. Looking at recent World Cup knockout matches, there are very few cases where a team wins after trailing by more than 1.5 in xG. Reports indicated that an expected goals against (xGA) of 3.54 more accurately reflected the true defensive pressure Belgium faced. This win was pure survival.
During a water break in the second half, with Belgium trailing 0-2, Tielemans and Leandro Trossard were involved in a heated argument on the sidelines. Goal.com reported that teammates had to separate them to prevent a physical altercation. Trailing by two goals, the players nearly came to blows, revealing cracks in the team's internal order under pressure.
Yet, these two players later combined to create the comeback goal. Football's accounts are never straightforward.
This win cannot mask structural problems. The only previous time Belgium came back from 2-0 down to win 3-2 in a World Cup knockout match was on July 2, 2018, against Japan. Eight years later, the same script, the same scoreline. This goes beyond "resilience" and exposes a structural flaw in the team: they only activate some kind of survival mechanism when backed into a corner.
In the 117th minute of extra time, Tielemans went down in the penalty area.
Héctor Said Martínez Sorto, 34, the first Honduran to referee a men's World Cup match, pointed to the spot after a lengthy VAR review. The offending player, Lamine Camara, had only come on as a substitute in the 67th minute. His first touch of the ball resulted in a foul and a yellow card. Fifty minutes later, he conceded a fatal penalty in the box. From "causing trouble" to "sealing the fate," it took him just half a match.
Pedro Martín, a referee expert from Cadena COPE, watched the replay and called the decision "a complete joke," claiming Tielemans was "purely seeking contact."
The referee pointed to the spot, VAR drew the lines, the expert cursed, but the 3-2 on the scoreboard remained unchanged.
At 124 minutes and 44 seconds, Tielemans scored the penalty, creating the latest goal in World Cup history.
Senegal was just five minutes away from their best-ever World Cup result. They couldn't hold on.
The next time you see a comeback with such an inverted xG, don't rush to praise their resilience. First, check their expected goals against, and then look at the opponent's goalkeeper's age.
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