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Opta's supercomputer ran 25,000 simulations, giving the Netherlands, the top team in Group F that just thrashed Sweden 5 1, a 47.6% chance of winning this match.
Opta's supercomputer ran 25,000 simulations and calculated the Netherlands' win probability at 47.6% for this match, after they topped Group F with a 5-1 thrashing of Sweden.
Less than half.
Their opponent is Morocco, ranked 7th in FIFA, one spot higher than the Netherlands. In Monterrey on June 30, the 48-team expansion was meant to hand tickets to newcomers like Haiti, yet the very first knockout round pairing has two top-10 teams sitting at the same table fighting for a spot in the last 16. The loser goes straight home, no second chances.
Morocco arrived in North America with a 39-match unbeaten streak, 32 wins and 7 draws. But their group stage opener ended in a 1-1 draw with Brazil, and their nine-match clean sheet record, snapped by Mali at last year's Africa Cup of Nations, remains unrevived.
Regragui resigned in March, and Wahbi now sits on the coaching bench. Asked about the unfair schedule before the match, Wahbi shrugged it off: "We knew the rules long ago, nothing to complain about, that's FIFA." Blaming the schedule is the safest form of self-protection for a weaker team's coach.
The schedule does favor them. Since playing Portugal in 2018, Morocco's last 13 World Cup matches have seen 10 against European teams, the most of any team facing European opposition in that span. Portugal, Spain, Croatia, Belgium, France... this team has been forged into an "anti-Europe" machine by European opponents.
The machine's sharpest cog is Saibari. Against Scotland, he struck 71 seconds into the match. All three group stage opponents—Brazil, Scotland, Haiti—have been pierced by him. This attacking midfielder, fresh off a transfer to Bayern Munich, is using the World Cup as a springboard.
The Dutch thought they had woken up after the 5-1 scoreline against Sweden.
Brobbey slammed one in five minutes into the match, bagging a brace; Gakpo scored twice in the second half, his second goal also marking the 100th of this World Cup. But they conceded in all three group matches, starting with a 2-2 draw against Japan, their defense always leaking.
A leaky defense can be patched by the midfield, but a fractured dressing room can only be endured.
Afellay went on TV, calling Morocco "easy prey," saying the Dutch "have nothing to lose sleep over." Koeman directly contradicted him at the press conference: "I'm not sure we're the favorites, it's a tough match, they can score easily." A legend underestimates, the coach shows fear—the messaging is completely off.
Gakpo ignored Afellay's dismissive talk. His last public statement was a request for "privacy and space."
Two days ago, his partner Noa van der Biezen posted on social media: "We announce with broken hearts that our baby boy passed away during pregnancy." Gakpo chose to stay with the team, scoring two goals in that 5-1 win. The coaching staff had no choice but to bet he could endure such extreme personal tragedy.
In Morocco's 26-man squad, more than one player grew up in the Dutch youth system. Now they wear red shirts, ready to use Dutch football's own products to stab the Dutch in the ribs.
The Monterrey turf doesn't care who wants it more. Afellay's "easy prey" and Gakpo's two goals—one of them will become the joke of the summer after 90 minutes.