Koman backed down, but Morocco is tougher than you think.

Koeman admitted an unusual fact at the pre-match press conference in Monterrey. The Netherlands, who scored 10 goals in three group-stage matches, will switch to a three-center-back formation for the knockout rounds.

In simple terms, it's self-correction after being slapped in the face by the data.

Ten goals look great. Four conceded look terrible.

The Netherlands played three matches in Group F: a 2-2 draw with Japan, a 5-1 win over Sweden, and a 3-1 victory over Tunisia. Brobbey alone scored three goals, including a fierce volley in the seventh minute against Tunisia from Van Dijk's header, showing pent-up aggression for the entire season. Van Dijk himself notched his 13th goal for the national team in 93 appearances, tying Frank de Boer, with only current coach Koeman ahead of him on the Dutch defender goal-scoring list.

There's nothing to complain about in attack. The problem is at the back.

In the match against Tunisia, the Netherlands had 71% possession, 20 shots, and an expected goals of 1.68 to 0.43—the quality of chances created by the Dutch was nearly four times that of their opponents. They won all the stats, and the score was 3-1. The Japan game was more bizarre: Daichi Kamada equalized with a header in the 51st minute. Conceding four goals in three group-stage matches is already a yellow alert for a team aiming for the title.

Koeman said bluntly in an NOS interview: "We started practicing the three-center-back formation early on. The team must reduce goals conceded. There was some margin for error in the group stage, but that margin no longer exists."

Translated for fans: I know we can score up front, but we can't defend at the back. Lose one in the knockout stage and you're out. I can't afford to gamble.

Their opponent is Morocco.

In Group C, they held Brazil to a 1-1 draw, beat Haiti 4-2, and defeated Scotland. With 2 wins and 1 draw for 7 points, scoring 6 goals and conceding 3 for a +3 goal difference, they finished second only because of fewer goals than Brazil. Don't call them dark horses. This is the core of the 2022 Qatar semi-finalist squad—they're tough opponents.

Of the 26-man squad, 19 were born abroad. Hakimi was born in Madrid, and Bouaddi carries flags for both France and Morocco. Wahbi addressed the dual nationality topic in the press conference, saying: "They are focused on winning for Morocco."

That statement itself is a line of defense. Outsiders keep questioning loyalty, and the coach can only repeatedly express the players' commitment. But once on the pitch, they aren't running just to show loyalty.

Koeman called this a "dream matchup" and said "both teams should have gone further; it's too early to meet now." Just pleasantries. What he really knows is another thing: Morocco's flanks. Hakimi's speed and crosses already troubled Brazil's defense in the group stage. Koeman said at the press conference: "Morocco's wing attack is a prominent threat," followed by "their defensive gaps can be exploited through rapid transitions." Praise the opponent then prescribe a remedy—standard coach talk.

There's another unavoidable topic: penalties.

In the 2014 World Cup semi-final, they lost 2-4 on penalties to Argentina. In the 2022 World Cup quarter-final, they lost to Argentina on penalties again. Two World Cups, the same opponent, the same death. Dutch football has a complete trauma memory from 12 yards.

What did Koeman say? "Emotional state can't be simulated in training. Substitutions can lead to changes in penalty takers, and many factors are hard to control." L'Équipe distilled this to: practicing penalties is pointless.

That sounds like giving up. But those who know the Dutch team understand it's self-protection after trauma. They've practiced and still lost, so better to focus on solving the game in 90 minutes. The question is, what if 90 minutes aren't enough?

Then there's Gakpo's situation.

During the group stage, his girlfriend Noa van der Vee announced on social media that their unborn son Elijah died in the womb. A Liverpool striker lost his child while at the World Cup. Koeman said he "never asked to leave the team," and Van Dijk posted only one sentence on social media: "Being there for Cody is the most important thing."

That sentence needs no translation.

Tonight at the BBVA Stadium in Monterrey, kickoff at 21:00 Beijing time, with an expected temperature of 38°C. Opta's supercomputer gives the Netherlands a 47.6% chance of advancing, and Morocco 25%. What the machine calculates has nothing to do with the fear from 12 yards, or whether a father who lost his child during pregnancy can concentrate.

The Dutch spear is sharp enough. Morocco's shield isn't paper-thin either. Koeman's switch to a three-center-back formation is the least romantic decision of his coaching career, but it might be the most correct one. And if 90 minutes aren't enough, penalties will come. Practice or not, it's the same.