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June 19th, Paraguay vs Turkey, third minute of first half stoppage time. Almiron covered his mouth and muttered something to a teammate. VAR intervened, straight red card. The first red card in World Cup history given for covering one's mouth while speaking, claimed by a Paraguayan. Playing a man down, they held on for nearly the entire second half, keeping a 1 0 lead.
June 19th, Paraguay vs Turkey, third minute of first-half stoppage time. Almiron covered his mouth and muttered something to his teammate. VAR intervened, straight red card. The first red card in World Cup history issued for covering one's mouth while talking, collected by a Paraguayan. Down to ten men, they held on for almost the entire second half, keeping a 1-0 lead.
This is the quagmire Germany will have to wade through tomorrow in the early hours.
Paraguay treats possession stats like a hand towel. In South American qualifiers, they averaged 37% possession, dead last in the entire continent. Now on American soil, in their opening match, they conceded four goals to the hosts, with 28% possession and only one of their nine shots on target. Coach Alfaro offered no excuses afterwards, admitting his players had their "tactical, technical, and physical" shortcomings exposed to the bone.
Then they suffocated Turkey and played out a goalless draw with Australia. Third place in Group D, four points, squeezing into the knockout stage through the narrow loophole of the "best third-placed team" rule. Sixteen years. The last time they stepped onto knockout-stage turf was in 2010 in South Africa, losing 1-0 to eventual champions Spain. Since then, in 2014, 2018, and 2022, they haven't even found the door three tournaments running. Captain Gustavo Gómez tapped out a line on Instagram: "This is not all yet."
Now, standing opposite them is Germany. A title favorite whose own coach called their tactics "suicidal" just three days ago.
Nagelsmann has reason to be angry. A 2-1 loss to Ecuador in the final group match tore away the fig leaf earned from the first two matches in one night. The opening 7-1 demolition of Curaçao, with Havertz scoring twice, briefly saw Germany surpass Brazil as the team with the most goals in World Cup history. The second match against Ivory Coast was bloody; substitute Undav equalized in the 68th minute and snatched a 2-1 winner in the 94th minute of stoppage time, turning a deficit into victory.
Two big wins created the illusion that Germany had finally washed away the bad luck of consecutive group-stage exits in 2018 and 2022. Ecuadorian boots kicked the scab right off the healing wound.
"We committed tactical suicide," Nagelsmann said after the match. "Losing is never good, even if you can't lose the top spot in the group from this match."
Three matches, 10 goals scored, 4 conceded. Group E winners. The record is impeccable. But anyone who watched the Ecuador match knows this German team is still riddled with chaos in the transition seconds from attack to defense, with the midfield line as open as a highway at 3 AM. Nagelsmann was fuming: "I don't think it's fair that winning the group should somehow be punished."
The punishment he meant is Paraguay. 1:30 AM Beijing time tomorrow, Foxborough Stadium in Boston.
Alfaro's team has an incredibly tough foundation. Since he took over, Paraguay has allowed opponents an average of just 1.00 expected goals (xG) per match. In the brutal South American qualifiers, where everyone wants to bleed you dry, they manage to choke the opponent's biggest chance to just one per game. The specific problem Germany faces tomorrow: the ball is at your feet, you control it, but after controlling it, can you force it into the box, or will you only turn over possession in a pointless circle outside?
Paraguay has holes too. Brighton midfielder Diego Gómez is suspended for this match with two yellow cards. He is the most reliable outlet for starting attacks in the Paraguayan midfield. Without him, the quality of the first pass in the transition from defense to attack drops a grade. The good news is that Almiron returns from suspension. That guy who got a red card for covering his mouth now has to pay his debt with his feet.
The disruptive force up front is Enciso. At the 2024 Copa America, this guy single-handedly took 14 shots, while the next highest Paraguayan player managed only 5; he attempted 22 dribbles, three times more than his teammates. So far in this World Cup, he has 0 goals and 1 assist, but anyone who has watched him knows this kid carries dynamite in his boots, ready to blow a hole in any elite defense.
On Germany's side, they hold undav. On the bench against Ivory Coast, he came on and scored twice, including the 94th-minute winner. Nagelsmann's bench now has a card that can flip the table.
Historically, Germany leads 2 wins and 1 draw against Paraguay. Their only official World Cup meeting was in the Round of 16 in 2002, a 1-0 win for Germany, with Neuville scoring the goal. That's ancient history from the 32-team format. 2026 uses 48 teams; this match is strictly a Round of 32 knockout. Win it, and you're in the Round of 16.
The betting market prices Germany at -250, implying roughly a 71% win probability. Paraguay is at +600. The bookmakers see no suspense.
Nagelsmann knows the other calculation better than anyone. If he loses his first knockout match in charge of Germany, the nightmare of the German team "failing to pass the first hurdle" for three consecutive World Cups will be fully cemented.
Win, and waiting ahead is likely France.
Lose, and he won't even have the composure to face the gaze of those big-name players in the dressing room.