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27 shots. 15 on target. xG 3.05, should have been three goals.
27 shots. 15 on target. xG of 3.05, should have scored three goals.
The opponent was Curaçao, a small Caribbean island whose entire population wouldn't fill two Bernabéu stadiums. Ecuador played the ball up to the edge of the opponent's box, worked it around like a rosary for 90 minutes, but just couldn't break down the door. Goalkeeper Eloy Room made 15 saves, setting a record for the most saves in a single 90-minute World Cup match since records began in 1966. 0-0.
It's rare to see such bad luck. But if you look at Ecuador's results over the past few years, a 0-0 draw is hardly surprising.
Ecuador arrived in the US with the halo of having the best defense in qualifying, which sounds intimidating. But break it down: 18 qualifiers, 8 wins, 8 draws, 2 losses—draws accounting for almost half. Their defense was indeed solid, conceding only 5 goals in 18 South American qualifiers, fewer than any other team in the region. But over that same qualifying campaign, they scored only 14 goals, averaging 0.78.
There are examples of winning titles through defense. But those teams have at least one or two lethal players up front who can decide a game with one strike. Ecuador lacks that role. Midfield linchpin Caicedo sweeps in front of the defense, center-back Pacho throws his body in the way in the box, and their biggest goal threat is still 36-year-old Enner Valencia, who can't sprint 50 meters anymore. He scored 6 goals in qualifying, nearly half of the team's total of 14.
Coach Beccacece's thinking is clear: don't concede first. Since he took over, the defensive stats are indeed impressive—only 2 goals conceded in 12 matches. But the system he built has a structural flaw: the defensive line sits very deep, the holding midfielder drops extremely deep, making it very hard for opponents to break through. The cost is that it's almost impossible to commit enough players forward. Possession stalls when it reaches the final third; when the midfield tries to pass forward, two or three attackers are surrounded by five or six opponents and can only pass back. Shots rely on long-range efforts, set pieces, or waiting for the opponent to make a mistake.
The match against Ivory Coast illustrated this logic perfectly. Ecuador had 12 shots in the game, only one on target, with an xG of 1.01. In the 90th minute, Amad Diallo put the ball in the net for a 1-0 defeat. The capital built up during qualifying was shattered without a sound—because they couldn't even mount a proper fightback.
Then look at who's sitting on Germany's bench.
Deniz Undav. Stuttgart striker, a tough guy who fought his way up from the lower leagues. Two substitute appearances totaling 56 minutes in the World Cup group stage, scoring 3 goals and providing 2 assists. Before this match, Undav had played 11 times for the German national team and scored 9 goals.
Against Ivory Coast, Kessié scored first in the 30th minute, putting Germany 1-0 down. Undav equalized in the 68th minute and scored the winner in the 94th minute of stoppage time. The game against Curaçao was even more lopsided: 7-1. Nmecha scored in the 6th minute, Schlotterbeck headed in during the 38th, Havertz scored a penalty in first-half stoppage time and again in the 88th minute, Musiala found the net in the 47th, Brown in the 68th, and Undav closed the scoring in the 78th. Six different scorers.
Nagelsmann stated before the match that there would be no wholesale rotation, only two forced changes—Rüdiger replacing Schlotterbeck, who suffered an inner ankle ligament tear, and Raum starting. The rest of the lineup essentially stays the same. When a part breaks on a machine, you take it off and replace it with one of the same specification; the RPM stays the same.
What about Ecuador's end? There are only a few cards to play from the bench. Even if Beccacece wanted to make changes, what different tricks could the substitutes pull off?
MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. The final match of Group E. Germany top with 6 points secured, Ivory Coast with 3, Ecuador and Curaçao with 1 each. To stay alive, Ecuador must win and depend on other results to fight for one of the eight "best third-placed spots."
The two teams have met twice historically, with Germany winning both times, 3-0 and 4-2, scoring 7 and conceding 2. After referee Tori Penso—the first female referee to officiate a men's World Cup match in US history—blows the opening whistle, Ecuador must push their formation forward, discard all the defensive instincts they've honed over the past dozen or so games, and attack a German team that has scored 9 goals in their last two matches.
They couldn't even break through against Curaçao.