Aztec lost only 2 out of 89 matches, both by 1 2. How will Tuchel's England die?

Mexico has played 89 official matches at the Azteca, with 70 wins, 17 draws, and only 2 losses.

The strange part is how they lost. In 2001 against Costa Rica and 2013 against Honduras, the score was identical: 1-2. Both were World Cup qualifiers, Mexico scored first, then were overturned in the second half. Costa Rica scored two goals in the final 18 minutes, while Honduras took the win with two second-half counterattacks.

For over sixty years, the pitch at this stadium has only known this one way to die.

England has arrived. It's been exactly 40 years since they last played a World Cup here. On June 22, 1986, Maradona scored one with his hand and one with his foot, sending the Three Lions home 2-1. The ghosts of that match have been chewed over by the media long ago. What truly sends chills down the spine is another set of numbers: since losing to Honduras in September 2013, Mexico has gone 26 consecutive official matches unbeaten at the Azteca. In 10 World Cup home games, they have 6 wins and 4 draws.

At 6 PM on July 5th, the altitude at the Azteca Stadium is 2,240 meters.

Tuchel didn't hide anything at the pre-match press conference: "The altitude will be a huge disadvantage; we can't physically adapt." He also got into an extremely specific detail: "The flight trajectory of the ball will be different; it might fly five yards further."

Five yards, about four and a half meters. In the thin air at 2,240 meters, a corner kick can fly straight past the far post, and a long pass can drift half a body width off target. The ball doesn't obey the foot.

When the England team bus arrived at the hotel, hundreds of Mexican fans blocked the entrance, filling the windows with boos. Previously, the Ecuador team stayed at the same hotel, and fans bombarded them all night with megaphones, motorcycle engines, and fireworks, forcing the Ecuadorian Football Federation to file a formal complaint with FIFA. The FA is now frantically reviewing security plans, considering a secret relocation, and even equipping players with sleep aids.

FIFA itself has added to the chaos. The original kickoff was set for 6 PM, but due to thunderstorm risks, they once proposed moving it to noon. Both the English and Mexican FAs slammed the table, and it took FIFA five and a half hours to withdraw the decision. The preparation rhythm of both teams was shattered by a weather forecast.

Even more absurd is the medication. England players are allowed to use Sildenafil—that is, Viagra—before the match. WADA has confirmed the drug is not on the banned list, and research suggests it can dilate blood vessels and alleviate altitude sickness. The Three Lions' internationals, worth hundreds of millions, have to swallow a little blue pill to ensure their lungs function properly at high altitude.

England's Round of 32 match against the Democratic Republic of Congo had a stat sheet as pretty as a fake account. 60% possession, 16 shots to 6, xG of 2.04 to 0.77.

But anyone who watched the full 90 minutes knows the Three Lions almost went home.

DR Congo scored a surprise goal in the 7th minute, and England didn't manage their first shot until the 30th minute. For a full 23 minutes, the Three Lions were pinned in their own half by a team that was weak on paper, passing the ball around like prayer beads but unable to get it into dangerous areas. Kane equalized in the 75th minute and scored the winner in the 86th, a 2-1 scoreline barely masking the struggle on the pitch.

The xG model says you dominated the game, but for the 68 minutes after conceding first, the entire team was steeped in anxiety. This England team's lack of resilience under pressure has been exposed before. At the Azteca, with 2,240 meters of altitude and a stadium full of boos, how much will that anxiety be magnified?

Aguirre has welded Mexico's defense into an iron bucket.

A 5-3-2 or 5-4-1 low block, with Johan Vásquez and César Montes holding the center. In four matches, they've scored 8 goals and conceded 0. 2-0 against South Africa, 1-0 against South Korea, 3-0 against Czech Republic, 2-0 against Ecuador. Four opponents, clean sheets all the way.

The match against Ecuador laid Aguirre's plan bare. Mexico had only 43% possession and 3 shots on target from 15 attempts, but they still scored two. Quiñones broke through in the 22nd minute, Jiménez added another in the 31st, killing the game in 9 minutes. Aguirre doesn't want possession or spectacle; he just wants the opponent to not score.

He even dared to start a 17-year-old in a knockout match.

Gilberto Mora, born October 14, 2008, plays for Tijuana. On July 1st against Ecuador, he started at 17 years and 259 days old, becoming the second-youngest starter in World Cup knockout history. The only name ahead of him is Pelé in 1958, at 17 years and 239 days.

A difference of 17 days. A Mexican teenager stands on the starting lineup of a World Cup knockout match, right next to Pelé's shadow.

Aguirre's hand is strong enough to throw a kid into the meat grinder. Up front, there's 35-year-old Raúl Jiménez, who has already scored 2 goals in this tournament and 47 for his country, just 5 short of Chicharito Hernández's all-time record of 52. At the back, there's a defensive system with four clean sheets. In midfield, there's a 17-year-old like Mora who can handle the intensity of a knockout stage.

Aguirre laid his cards on the table in an interview: "In the past, I made the mistake of changing the tactical system."

The 65-year-old, coaching the Mexican national team for the second time, has broken down his lessons. He also said: "If we win, it's the players' credit; if we lose, it's the coach's fault, because we are the ones making the decisions."

An old fox who has learned from his losses, his philosophy now boils down to three words: don't make mistakes. Four clean sheets are the reward.

Tuchel complains about altitude and turf at the press conference; Aguirre counts his clean sheets in the locker room.

The only World Cup meeting between the two teams was on July 16, 1966. In the group stage, England won 2-0 at Wembley against Mexico, with Bobby Charlton scoring a long-range shot in the 38th minute and Roger Hunt adding another in the 76th.

That match was in London. Altitude near zero, no boos, no thunderstorms, no Viagra.

Sixty years later, they meet again, this time at the Azteca. All historical parameters have been reset to zero.

Opta gives England a 40.6% chance of winning in 90 minutes, Mexico 31.5%, and a draw 27.9%. The model values possession and shots, but the 2,240-meter altitude and the four clean sheets aren't in its weights.

England might have more possession tomorrow, more shots, a prettier xG panel. But the last time they had similar stats, they conceded in the 7th minute and didn't equalize until the 75th.

Costa Rica tried it. Honduras tried it. Both times it was 1-2, both times overturned in the second half.

The turf at the Azteca only knows this one way to die. At 6 PM on July 6th, we'll see how England dies, or how they live.