3 0, the French breathed a sigh of relief—then they saw their next opponent.

New York New Jersey Stadium. 80,663 people watched Mbappé slot the ball into Sweden's net, then sprint straight to the sideline to hug Deschamps. The move was unusual. A superstar striker, just scoring his 18th World Cup goal, celebrating like a kid running to their parents after their final exam.

The French let out a long sigh of relief. 28 years. That's how long they'd gone without beating Sweden in a major tournament—a 1-1 draw in Euro 1992 sent them packing in the group stage, and a 0-2 loss in Euro 2012 left them listless. The curse was finally broken. But who had they just steamrolled 3-0? Sweden, the third-place team in Group F, who only squeezed into the knockout stage on a "best third-place" wildcard. When the final whistle blew, the stands weren't filled with ecstasy; they were filled with relief.

The French themselves knew the confidence boost from this win was limited.

61% possession, 25 shots—France's highest shot total in a single World Cup match since 1998. 12 shots on target, 9 corners, 88% pass accuracy. The stats looked as polished as a mannequin in a shop window, making any outfit look good. Mbappé scored in the 45th and 74th minutes, Barcola added another in the 53rd. On paper, the attack line of Mbappé, Dembélé, Barcola, and Olise could devour any opponent.

But Sweden didn't offer any challenge that required "devouring." They had 8 shots total, 3 on target, 1 corner, and only 39% possession. This wasn't a demolition; it was going through the motions.

France won all three group stage matches this World Cup, topping Group I with 9 points, scoring 10 goals and conceding 2—3-1 vs. Senegal, 3-0 vs. Iraq, 4-1 vs. Norway. How many World Cup wins did their opponents have combined? Senegal and Norway were still figuring out how to get the ball into France's box. The match against Iraq in Philadelphia was even interrupted by a thunderstorm.

Mbappé had 6 goals in 4 games, 18 total World Cup goals—one short of Messi. He had 10 knockout stage goals, alone at the top of the all-time list, leaving the legendary Leônidas behind. With 58 national team goals, he surpassed Giroud's 57 to become France's all-time leading scorer. The numbers were solid. But they were racked up against Senegal, Iraq, Norway, and Sweden.

His next opponent had just sent the four-time champion Germany home.

Paraguay, third in Group D behind the USA and Australia, were making their first World Cup appearance since 2010. They lost 1-4 to hosts USA, beat Turkey 1-0, and drew 0-0 with Australia. They looked like a filler role.

Then they met Germany.

23% possession. 7 shots to Germany's 14. 4 corners to Germany's 10. On paper, it looked like a beatdown.

The scoreboard read: Paraguay 4-3 on penalties, Germany eliminated.

Goalkeeper Orlando Gil, 26, saved two penalties. Germany, a four-time World Cup champion, had a perfect penalty shootout history—that record was trashed by a 26-year-old Paraguayan. Gil only said after the match: "I analyzed every detail."

This wasn't an upset. It was an organized hunt.

Paraguay coach Alfaro dropped a line after the match: "We play barefoot on red dirt." It sounds poetic, but it's a tactical manifesto. His Paraguay doesn't chase possession, doesn't chase the spectacle, doesn't chase making the fans comfortable. They chase dragging the opponent into the mud with minimal resources, and then delivering a killing blow in the mire. FIFA's official stats showed 5 yellow cards in four matches—far fewer than many imagined. Discipline is scarier than aggression. They aren't reckless brutes; they are accountants.

Alfaro said another thing before the tournament: "We aren't here to make up the numbers; we're here to compete." He added: "We've played Argentina, we've played Brazil. We've held our own against opponents on the same level as Germany, or even greater."

In the locker room, this team communicates in Guaraní—South America's only indigenous language spoken alongside Spanish. Tactical signals, emotional motivation, sideline shouts; outsiders can't understand a word. The language itself is a wall.

French defender Koundé admitted in an interview: "This will be a difficult match."

Deschamps' challenge isn't just tactical. His attack line is used to opponents pressing them high—the three group-stage opponents and Sweden all tried to trade blows with France, leaving space behind for Mbappé to accelerate. Paraguay won't give you that space. They pack the box, force you to make decisions within 30 meters, make every pass hit a wall, turning your possession into a rosary. Then, when your legs start to weaken around the 70th minute, they stab you on the counter.

Philadelphia, July 4th, American Independence Day. Lincoln Financial Field, open-air, no roof.

Weather forecast: Four consecutive days exceeding 100°F. Feels-like temperature between 105 and 115°F, which converts to 40-46°C. If this forecast holds, it will be the first time in Philadelphia's recorded history.

France is familiar with this pitch—they beat Iraq here 3-0 in the group stage. But that match was interrupted by a thunderstorm, and temperatures weren't anywhere near this high. On July 4th in Philadelphia, there's no thunderstorm to save them, only the sun.

Mbappé is one goal behind Messi. One more, and he ties. In the 1998 World Cup round of 16, Blanc scored the first golden goal in World Cup history in the 114th minute of extra time to eliminate Paraguay, and France went on to win the title. Alfaro's line after the match, "We play barefoot on red dirt"—28 years ago, they were playing the same way, just that night, Blanc was a step faster.

Twenty-eight years have passed. Same opponent, same hurdle. But this time, Paraguay just walked off a penalty shootout win against Germany, goalkeeper Gil studied every opponent's penalty habit, Philadelphia is 46°C, and Mbappé wants to tie Messi's record—

He'll have to survive 90 minutes on 46°C turf first.