World Cup Story Feed / 世界杯事情流
World Cup Story Feed / 世界杯事情流
In the match where Australia beat Turkey 2 0, the post match stats looked like performance art. Possession was 28% to 72%, shots were 9 to 30, and xG—expected goals, a high level metric measuring the quality of each shot—stood at 0.76 to 1.33. The Turks fired 30 shots and didn't score a single goal. Irankunda and Metcalfe each struck once, with two successful counterattacks. The Turks, who treated possession like praying a rosary, were suffocated to death in Vancouver.
In the match where Australia beat Turkey 2-0, the post-game stats looked like performance art. Possession was 28% to 72%, shots were 9 to 30, and xG—expected goals, an advanced metric measuring the quality of each shot—stood at 0.76 to 1.33. Turkey fired off thirty shots and didn't score a single one. Irankunda and Metcalfe each scored with a counterattack, securing two goals. The Turks, who held the ball like prayer beads, were suffocated alive in Vancouver.
Qatar vs. Switzerland pushed performance art to the extreme. Possession was 32% to 68%, shots were 7 to 26, xG 0.76 to 3.24. The Swiss spent the whole game attacking the box, with Embolo opening the scoring from the penalty spot—the first penalty of this World Cup. Qatar didn't collapse. In the 4th minute of stoppage time, Al-Haydos equalized with a header. An xG of 3.24 yielded only a penalty; the efficiency of the Swiss forward line is inversely proportional to their banking reputation. Qatar earned the first World Cup point in their history.
South Korea vs. Czech Republic was the only Asian team in this anomalous sequence to dominate the stats. Possession was 62%, shots 15 to 7, xG 2.3 to 0.83. But behind these numbers lies another calculation: South Korea reportedly flew to Guadalajara five days early to acclimatize to the altitude, while the Czechs landed only the day before. When Krejčí scored with a header in the 58th minute, the Czechs were still leading. In the 67th, Hwang In-beom cut inside the box, chipped the ball, and equalized. In the 80th, Hwang In-beom crossed from the right, and Oh Hyun-gyu slotted home the winner. In the second half, it wasn't the South Koreans who couldn't run anymore.
For Japan vs. Netherlands, Van Dijk scored with a header in the 51st minute, and Summerville curled one in during the 64th—Netherlands led 2-0. Possession split 40-60, shots were ten apiece—no overwhelming statistical gap. Japan had historically never beaten the Netherlands, with two draws and two losses. This time, they snatched a point from the brink of defeat in the dying moments.
Across four Asia vs. Europe matches, Asian teams secured 2 wins and 2 draws, earning 6 points. Average possession was 45%, average shots 8.8 to opponents' 22.5; average xG was 1.11 to opponents' 2.59. Switzerland's xG of 3.24 produced only a penalty, while Turkey's 30 shots yielded zero goals—European forwards collectively went limp, or rather, Asian teams' goalkeepers and defenses blocked those 'expected' goals one by one.
Anomalies in a single match can be chalked up to form, but over four World Cups, you can't dismiss it with form. According to Stats Foot, in the last two World Cups (2022 + 2026), UEFA teams have only 4 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses against AFC teams. In the previous two (2014 + 2018), under the same criteria, it was 10 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss. From 10 wins down to 4, from just 1 loss to 7. The UK's Guardian stated bluntly during the group stage: "The overall strength of AFC teams is already close to Europe, especially aside from powerhouses like France, Germany, Spain, and England; Asian and European teams differ little in quality and are fully competitive."
Just as talk of an "Asian rise" spread, the second round provided a counterexample. Iraq was thrashed 4-1 by Norway in Boston, with Haaland scoring a brace. This was the first loss for an AFC team in this World Cup, and the heaviest. Jordan then lost 1-3 to Austria in San Francisco, with Ali Olwan's 50th-minute goal disallowed by VAR. That seemingly unstoppable unbeaten streak had already ended at the tail end of the first round—the 9 teams' total record in the opening round was 2 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses.
Looking back at those draws, their quality crumbles under scrutiny. Saudi Arabia's 1-1 draw with Uruguay featured an aging Suárez, who has handed points to Asian teams for two consecutive tournaments. Iran's 2-2 comeback against New Zealand was against an OFC team, not a European or South American opponent. The Paper straightforwardly stated: "Many famous but struggling teams in decline gave Asian teams a chance to 'set records'."
The second round tore off the veil. Qatar lost 0-6 to Canada, South Korea lost 0-1 to Mexico—a five-game losing streak for Asian teams. Before they could catch their breath from the first round, they were brought back to earth in the second.
The outcome was colder than the process. With the historic expansion, 9 AFC teams entered. After the group stage, only Japan and Australia advanced to the round of 32—a qualification rate of less than one-quarter. Japan advanced as runner-up in Group F, next to face Brazil. Australia secured second place in Group D with 4 points, hardly dominant. After beating the Czech Republic in the first round, South Korea's qualification probability once soared to 94%, but then fell to 44% after a loss to South Africa, ultimately failing to advance.
This edition granted AFC 8.5 spots, a historic number. But more spots don't mean stronger strength. Victories with 28% possession and equalizers in the 4th minute of stoppage time are impressive enough, but nine teams out and seven back—that number needs no embellishment.