2026 World Cup Group F Key Match: Japan vs Sweden

The Swedes set a record at this World Cup. One that no one wants to claim.

They routed Tunisia 5-1 in their opener, then were dismantled 5-1 by the Netherlands in their second match. A big win followed by a crushing defeat—a contrast of this magnitude is extremely rare in the World Cup.

Graham Potter is holding together a lopsided team. Isak, Gyökeres, and Elanga—three forwards who are key players in the Premier League and Portuguese League—come together to form an attack that, on paper, can tear any defense to shreds. But the backline was completely exposed against the Netherlands: Brobbey scored in the 5th minute, then again in the 12th; Gakpo netted twice in the 47th and 54th minutes of the second half; and Summerville added a final blow in the 89th minute, making it 1-5. This marked the fourth time in Swedish history they’ve conceded five goals in a single World Cup match. No matter how strong the front line is, a leaky defense is useless.

Now, look at Japan. On June 21st, in the 1,000th official match in World Cup history, Hajime Moriyasu’s team took on Tunisia as their sacrificial lamb, wrapping it up 4-0. Daichi Kamada opened the scoring with a backheel finish in the 4th minute, setting a record for the fastest goal by a Japanese player at the World Cup. Ayase Ueda delivered two goals and one assist, including a world-class strike. Junya Ito added another goal to seal the deal. Japan became the first Asian team to score four goals in a single World Cup match. They gave their opponents no breathing room for the entire game.

But this Japan team is missing Takefusa Kubo. In the 75th minute of the first match against the Netherlands, Kubo collided with Dumfries, suffering a left knee sprain. He left the field in a wheelchair after the game. Moriyasu said calmly afterward, "He can walk on his own. I hope it’s just a minor injury." Captain Wataru Endo then offered a bit more detail: "Kubo told me his knee feels more stable than yesterday. He can walk normally, so it might not be serious, but we need to wait for the medical team’s final assessment." Sports medicine analysis from the U.S. provided a more specific estimate: if it’s a Grade 1 medial collateral ligament sprain, recovery takes between half a week and two weeks, with a chance he could return for the knockout stage. That’s assuming they get past Sweden.

After two rounds, Japan and the Netherlands both have 4 points and a +4 goal difference. The Netherlands is ahead on goals scored by just one, putting them atop the group. Sweden has 3 points and a 0 goal difference. Tunisia has 0 points and a -8 goal difference, meaning they can basically book their flights home. Japan only needs a draw to advance, guaranteeing them 5 points and a spot in the Round of 16. Sweden can’t afford to lose—if they do, they’ll still have 3 points but a negative goal difference, likely putting them at the mercy of other results. Potter has no choice but to go all-in.

Moriyasu will likely stick with a 3-4-2-1 formation, with Ueda leading the line for physical battles and two players behind him providing service. Potter is expected to use a 3-4-3. It looks impressive, but essentially gives up the midfield. As soon as the wing-backs push forward, only two players are left to cover the midfield. In short, he’s gambling everything on the front three’s individual brilliance. If they can solve it on their own, great. If not, the midfield won’t be able to clean up the mess. Potter said before the match, "Gyökeres and Isak’s threat will grow as the game goes on." It sounds like pressure on the opponent, but also like a fallback plan: if the front line delivers, conceding a few at the back is acceptable; if they go quiet, tactics won’t matter—it’s just a failed gamble.

Japan, however, isn’t easily intimidated. They’ve lost only one of their last 14 matches and scored 26 goals. That number doesn’t come from one star player shining, but from the entire machine working in unison. Ueda proved against Tunisia that he can score, set up goals, and unleash long-range worldies. Kamada controls the tempo in midfield. Kubo’s absence means the midfield loses a player who can change the game through individual skill, but Moriyasu’s system is mature enough to absorb that loss.

The two teams have met five times in history. Japan has 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal difference of 7-7. The only time Japan defeated Sweden was at the 1936 Berlin Olympics, where they came back from two goals down to win 3-2, a victory known as the "Miracle of Berlin." That history, nearly 90 years old, has no psychological hold on tonight’s players. Sweden’s defense was a revolving door against the Netherlands. Brobbey and Gakpo ran freely to score at will. The all-around performance Ueda showed in the 4-0 win—two goals, one assist, a world-class strike, and link-up play—is exactly the type of threat Sweden’s defense fears most. If Sweden’s midfield continues to fail in possession, Isak and Gyökeres will likely only get chances on the counterattack.

The match takes place at AT&T Stadium in Dallas on the 26th local time, with referee Iván Barton taking charge.

Ueda’s world-class goal from that match is probably on repeat in the Swedish defenders’ minds. But Brobbey pierced the same defense with just two shots. No matter how much video they analyze, if a defense leaks, there’s no stopping the flood.